Lots of overreactions. There are all kinds of predictions being thrown around. No one knows what will happen, but plenty of scenarios seem plausible.
Some people think this could be the biggest technological breakthrough in history. It will solve diseases and create so much abundance that we won’t know what to do with ourselves.
Others worry about creating a god in a box that could lead to very bad outcomes – biological weapons, deepfakes, massive job displacement, etc.
Then there is the group that thinks AI is nothing more than a parlor trick.
This is the only group I disagree with. I think AI will have huge societal impacts, some good and some bad, like most technological breakthroughs.
Let’s go through some of the possible pros and cons of AI:
Pro: AI will streamline the automation of repetitive tasks. The productivity gains can be enormous.
downside: Anthropic CEO Daio Amodei said AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs.
The good news is that AI has not yet had a meaningful impact on the labor market as a whole. The labor participation of people in the highest age category is more or less back to the highest level ever recorded in the 1990s:
There are not that many vacancies, but there have been no mass layoffs.
Unfortunately, it’s probably coming.
Pro: Agentic AI is coming. In the not-too-distant future, you’ll have an AI personal assistant in your ear/pocket, likely through your phone and computer.
You give it tasks and your personal assistant (who is still working on this) plans it, tests different results, fixes errors and gives you a final product.
And you don’t have to oversee this process.
It will be wild and make many parts of your life much easier to deal with.
downside: Fraud will be rampant. Fake videos, fake calls, fake emails, financial phishing – AI will give criminals and peddlers all kinds of new tools to take advantage of people.
It won’t be pretty if we work through this.
Pro: AI doesn’t sleep. It doesn’t get tired. There are no family problems. Once you know how to use it correctly, this technology is going to save you a lot of time at work and in your personal life.
downside: Most people are overly dependent on technology. AI is going to make this even worse. Are people going to have relationships with their AI operating system like Joaquin Phoenix in? Her? Probably.
Will more people interact with AI instead of going outside for some sun, exercise and fresh air? Most likely.
Will AI be used by some to waste time watching sloppy behavior? Certainly.
Social media has been terrible for the mental health of society. AI could make things worse.
Pro: AI may come at the perfect time as we face a growing fertility crisis (via The WSJ):
This is not just an American phenomenon. It’s global:
As countries become richer, health care improves, life expectancy increases and infant mortality decreases, people have fewer children. It’s a sign of progress.
But it can also hinder economic growth.
In the coming decades we will need higher productivity of the workforce. We will need robots. Who else will care for the seventy million aging baby boomers?
The labor market transition may not be pretty in the meantime, but we need AI to fill the gap for declining fertility rates around the world.
downside: Have you seen Terminator? What if we have a Sky Net situation where AI decides to take over?
James Cameron himself said this is a concern.
Do I really believe that AI is a threat to humanity? No, not really.
Is it scary that the chance of this happening is not zero? That’s what I would say.
Pro: Everyone now has access to a genius-level thinker who can explain anything in seconds.
When you ask one of the LLMs a question, the responses feel magical. You now have the opportunity to better understand any topic you are curious about.
This will certainly lead to better decisions from people who know how to use these tools.
downside: AI is going to make some people dumber. Cheating on tests is already a big problem.
You can use it to learn or switch off your brain completely by letting it think for you. Cheating on tests is already a big problem.
That is not a good outcome, but certainly an outcome that will apply to certain groups of people.
Pro: We could see a wave of innovation in scientific breakthroughs, drug discovery and disease cures as AI accelerates research capabilities.
downside: Inequality will become much greater. The gap between the haves and the have-nots will widen. Many people will be left behind through no fault of their own.
This is something our politicians must actively plan for. I don’t have much confidence that our leaders are ready for what’s to come.
There is a good chance that AI will cause more social unrest.
Pro: AI is likely to make society safer in many ways as it is used to provide checks and balances and reduce human error.
downside: AI is expensive to make. Data centers are unaffordable. AI requires tons of energy.
Final verdict?
I really have no idea how this will turn out. My best guess is that AI will disrupt millions of jobs, improve productivity, give us all personal assistants, and have a host of unintended consequences.
The economy is extremely dynamic and should therefore create new jobs, but the transition period is likely to be painful for millions of people.
There will be a lot of love And hatred towards AI in the coming years.
Michael and I talked about all things AI and more in this week’s Animal Spirits video:
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Further reading:
The human toll of artificial intelligence
Here’s what I’ve been reading lately:
Books:
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