A world-class field will travel approximately 2,400 meters (about 1.5 miles) across the Tokyo Racecourse turf. In keeping with the race’s lofty status and hefty purse of around $7.2 million, the betting favorite is one of the best horses in the world.
Can top any horse Calandagan?
Calandagan is sent to Japan for trainer Francis-Henri Graffard to end a campaign in which he earned Cartier Horse of the Year honors. He has won three Group 1 races in his native Europe, with his most recent score coming in the QIPCO Champion Stakes. He also annexed the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud.
Calandagan would likely have been favored in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf had his connections chosen to make the trip. That didn’t happen this year, but Graffard and owner Aga Khan Stud have said an extension of that 2026 Keeneland race is on the table and they’re looking forward to next year.
Simply put, if Calandagan produces the kind of effort he is capable of, the rest of the field will likely finish second. I wish I could get more creative than that, but I just think Calandagan is that good.
So, how do we make money?
I will focus on getting certain horses behind Calandagan in exotic bets such as the exacta and trifecta. I will have two logical horses on my tickets, as well as a prize.
Masquerade ball will probably cash in on his win in the Tenno Sho on this course a few weeks ago. Christophe Lemaire rides back, and this colt is a three-year-old who can still improve. However, I’m not 100% sure he really wants that much terrain (he seems to be at his best at 1,800-2,000 meters, or 1 1/8 to 1 ¼ miles).
Northern Cross cannot be ignored either. He won the Group 1 Tokyo Yushun, Japanese Derby, on this route in June, and his connections saw fit to ship to Europe for the Prix De l’Arc de Triomphe and compete against some of the best horses in Europe. That didn’t go well, because he ran a distance of 14ebut he is back here at his home base and has had some time to rest after that trip. If he’s his usual self, he has a chance.
Looking at the prices in the international betting markets, Sunrise Earth is a worthy longshot. The 2,400-meter distance shouldn’t be what should beat this runner, who has been prominent early. Last time he was a solid second in a Group 2 stakes in Japan, and that was his first attempt in five months. Earlier this year he won a Group 2 over 3,000 meters, or about 2 ½ miles. If he’s sharp, he can go a long way ahead of them and hold a share of the purse.
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Betting strategy with a $20 budget:
$4 exactly, Calandagan of Croix du Nord, Masquerade Ball and Sunrise Earth ($12)
$1 trifecta, Calandagan of Croix du Nord, Masquerade Ball and Sunrise Earth, of Croix du Nord, Masquerade Ball and Sunrise Earth ($6)
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