No Jannik Sinner. No Carlos Alcaraz. No problem. Both Italy and Spain advanced to the Davis Cup final without their best players. They will compete for the title on Sunday afternoon in Bologna.
Flavio Cobolli (ITA) vs. Jaume Munar (ESP)
Cobolli played the match of the tournament – and one of the matches of the year – on Friday when he saved seven match points to beat Belgian Zizou Bergs 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-6(15) after three hours and four minutes. That result gave Italy a 2-0 sweep and sent the host nation through to Sunday’s Davis Cup Finals championship match in Bologna.
The showdown between Italy and Spain is expected to feature a singles rubber between Cobolli and Munar, who will face each other for the second time. They faced each other earlier this fall at the Shanghai Masters, where Munar rode 7-5, 6-1. The world number 36 has been in excellent form all year and that continued in Bologna, where he upset Czech Jiri Lehecka 6-3, 6-4 before losing in the semi-finals to German Alexander Zverev in a competitive two-setter. Although Cobolli is the one who enjoyed a day off, that hardly matters as his semi-final rubber was far more challenging than Munar’s, both mentally and physically. Expect the Spaniard to triumph, just as he did in Shanghai.
Choice: Munar in 3
Matteo Berrettini (ITA) vs. Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP)
There is no reason for Italy or Spain to make any changes to the number 2 spot. Berrettini is 2-0 so far this week with back-to-back wins over Austrian Jurij Rodionov and Belgian Raphael Collignon. Carreno Busta opened with a 7-5, 6-4 loss to Czech Jakub Mensik, but recovered on Saturday to beat German Jan-Lennard Struff 6-4, 7-6(6). The 34-year-old trailed 6-1 in the second set tiebreak in that match.
Berrettini and Carreno Busta will face each other for the third time in their careers. They shared a pair of meetings in 2022, when the Italian won 7-5, 7-6(4), 6-4 at the Australian Open before the Spaniard got the job done 6-3, 6-2 at the Montreal Masters. Berrettini is healthy, playing well and is the superior indoor hard court player, so expect him to take advantage of his home advantage in front of what will be a raucous Italian crowd.
Choice: Berrettini in 2
Overall choice: Italy 2-1
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