It is an unexpected development that at first glance seems illogical, given the team’s already enviable starting position and the need to strengthen the lineup. But adding Valdez to the mix could make sense, as it would allow Pittsburgh to further leverage its roster of emerging rotation arms and leverage that depth to acquire a new bat.
The trade targets have thinned out as the offseason has progressed, but the Pirates could always try to connect with the D-backs. Kettle Martethe Red Sox Jarren Duran (or Wilier Abreu), or the Nationals on C.J. Abramsspeculatively speaking. There are certainly a number of other names that would be available as the Pirates, depending on what young guns the Pirates would make available. Paul Skenesis of course completely off limits. General manager Ben Cherington said this clearly just days into the offseason. But even outside of Skenes, the Pirates have done that Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft And Bubba Chandler received a ticket for innings in the big league. Jared Jones will be back from UCL surgery this season. Young poor like Hunter Barco, Thomas Harrington And Wilber Dotel are on the 40-man roster and are almost ready for the MLB. Pittsburgh selected high school righty Seth Hernandez with the sixth overall pick in last summer’s draft. It’s a deep collection of starters.
Pairing Valdez with Skenes would give the Pirates one of the best one-two punches in the entire game. The 32-year-old southpaw has been an iron man in Houston’s rotation in recent years. He has thrown 767 2/3 innings of 3.21 ERA ball with a 23.9% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and a massive 60% ground-ball rate over the past four seasons. Only among qualified starters Logan Webb has pitched more innings in that time. André Pallante, Clay Holmes And Jose Soriano are the only starters with better groundball percentages over the same period, and Valdez’s ERA is equal to Seattle’s Bryan Woo for 18th.
Signing Valdez would most likely require the Pirates to land the biggest contract in franchise history, but they have already shown a willingness to do so this winter, reportedly Kyle Schwarber $120-125 million over four years. Valdez is looking for a longer-term deal, but the way he’s hanging on the market is a good reminder of the scarcity of such contracts for pitchers 32 and older. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there are only three examples of a free agent pitcher age 32 or older who has been on a five-year contract in the past fifteen seasons: Blake Snell, Jacob de Grom And Zack Greinke. They were all former Cy Young winners with even stronger cases than Valdez currently has.
The Pirates are currently projecting a salary of $95 million for the upcoming season. per RosterResource. That’s, somewhat remarkably, only a few million short of their franchise record. However, the pursuit of Valdez and the failed bids for Schwarber and slugger Eugenio Suárez demonstrate a clear willingness to push the budget to previously unseen levels.
There is speculation that Valdez would agree to a shorter-term deal with opt-outs, as we have seen with several high-end free agents both this winter and in recent seasons. It’s not yet clear whether he’s amenable to such a structure, nor is it clear whether Pittsburgh is considering such an offer or a more conventional multi-year deal to keep Valdez in place for the foreseeable future. The Orioles were the team most prominently linked to Valdez all winter, but the Blue Jays are still in the mix and he has been at least loosely linked to the Braves, Giants, Mets and Red Sox in recent weeks.
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