Week 7 is here and PFF’s analysts have laid out their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.
The tool provides real-time projections, matchup data, hit percentages and the best available odds – all in one place. It’s the same level of insight that all 32 NFL teams rely on, now at your fingertips.
Here are our analysts’ favorite bets for Week 7. These picks went 15-19-2 this year.
Trevor Sikkema (3-3)
QB Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns: Less than 2.5 rush attempts (-140 BetMGM)
Gabriel has yet to record more than two carries in his starts this season and averaged just over four per game during his time at Oregon, with rushing never being a major part of his game. While kneeling can complicate these types of props, I’m siding with Gabriel’s style and choosing doom, given his limited willingness to flee.
Dalton Wasserman (4-2)
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Anytime TD (-170 Fanatics)
San Francisco ranks among the league’s best in key defensive metrics — including yards allowed per carry and explosive run rate — thanks in large part to Fred Warner. With Warner out for the season, the 49ers not only lose their best defender, but also the NFL’s second-highest rated linebacker in coverage. His absence opens the door for Bijan Robinson to make an impact anywhere on the field, both as a runner and as a receiver.
Ben Linsey (5-1)
WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos: 4.5+ receptions (+104 FanDuel)
Courtland Sutton was quiet in Denver’s ugly win against the Jets in London, recording just one catch, but he had recorded at least five receptions in each of the three previous games. He has a favorable game this week against a man-heavy Giants defense, where Paulson Adebo – currently ranked 92nd in PFF coverage grade – is the top outside corner. Sutton has achieved a target percentage of 29% against man coverage in a limited sample this season.
Mason Cameron (0-5-1)
QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 21.5+ completions (+102 FanDuel)
The Broncos have shown confidence in Bo Nix and keep the ball in his hands even when playing with a lead. Nix is ready for a big-time performance against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in receptions allowed, and he currently ranks eighth in pass attempts per game. His improved accuracy over the past three weeks, combined with Denver’s heavy screen use (17.4%, second highest) and emphasis on short passing, are the foundation for a strong completion total.
Max Chadwick (3-3)
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: 3.5+ receptions (+130 BetMGM)
Last week’s play on Jahmyr Gibbs with over 3.5 receptions wasn’t a success, but we’ll get right back to it. Gibbs still ranks fourth among all NFL running backs with 23 catches, and he now faces a Buccaneers defense that ranks second in receiving yards allowed per pass to backs. At +130, the value of this number is too good to pass up.
Gordon McGuinness (0-5-1)
QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: Over 227.5 passing yards (-111 DraftKings)
I’m going back to the well after missing the Daniels by single digits last week. The Cowboys (47.7) and Commanders (42.1) rank fourth and lowest, respectively, in PFF coverage grade, setting the stage for a potential shootout. Because both secondaries are vulnerable, there is a strong advantage for heavy passing volume on both sides.
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