Pakistan and Afghanistan are threatening war in the region under the supervision of superpowers

Pakistan and Afghanistan are threatening war in the region under the supervision of superpowers

An army soldier stands guard at a deserted entry point at the Friendship Gate, after the exchange of fire between the armed forces of Pakistan and Afghanistan, at the border crossing between the two countries, in Chaman, Pakistan, February 27, 2026. | Photo credit: ABDUL KHALIQ ACHAKZAI

Pakistan and Afghanistan moved closer to all-out war this week, escalating tensions in a region where the world’s economic powers are vying for influence.

Pakistan said it bombed targets in the Afghan capital Kabul to punish the Taliban government, which it blames for supporting deadly attacks by militants in Pakistan. Later Friday, the Afghan state news channel reported new Taliban attacks on several border posts. According to local media reports, there were clashes between the two sides on Friday evening.

The violence threatens to further destabilize a part of Asia where the US, China and India all have important interests – and which also faces consequences in the event of a US attack on neighboring Iran. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan are threatening to expand the exchange, although they also have reasons to reverse it.

President Donald Trump has said he wants to restore U.S. control of Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan — which was evacuated when the U.S. military withdrew in 2021 after two decades of occupation — mainly to keep an eye on China. He has high praise for Pakistan’s military chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, further exacerbating tensions in US-India ties.

Meanwhile, Beijing, one of Pakistan’s oldest friends and biggest backers, has stepped up its engagement with the Taliban.

All this is the backdrop to the revival of fighting this week, which Pakistan’s defense minister called an “open war.”

The two countries have given widely differing estimates of casualties in the latest clashes, which followed months of attacks in Pakistan — mainly by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP. The Afghan Taliban denies supporting the militant group, which has largely focused on remote tribal areas but recently claimed a suicide bombing in the capital Islamabad.

‘Too weak’

“These reprisals are getting worse little by little,” said Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, head of South Asia at consultancy Eurasia Group. Yet he sees limits to the escalation because “both countries are too weak to do much more than they are doing now.”

The Taliban remain limited by their diplomatic isolation, while Pakistan – whose bond markets took a hit from renewed fighting on Friday – desperately needs foreign investment. Previous conflicts were followed by rapid de-escalations.

At a news conference Friday, Pakistani military spokesman Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said the “operation continues” in Afghanistan and that 12 soldiers have been killed, he said. Information Minister Attaullah Tarar later said that Pakistan had killed 297 Taliban militants and regime personnel.

Afghan authorities said their forces killed 55 Pakistani soldiers, while losing 11 themselves. The Taliban want to resolve the conflict through talks but have the option to attack Pakistan at any time, spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said.

If Pakistan continues the campaign, Washington is one quarter where it could find support. Pakistan wants to quickly complete its operations against militants in Afghanistan and show the US its commitment to the fight against terrorism, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Trump has hosted Munir several times at the White House, and he has promised to develop Pakistan’s mineral and oil resources. The US president, who says his interventions have ended several wars, was asked on Friday whether anyone had sought help mediating the war.

“Well, I would, but I, as you know, get along very well with Pakistan,” Trump said, describing Munir as “a great general, a great leader.”

Other countries have stepped forward with mediation offers.

China has been working to mediate through “its own channels,” a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said Friday. Beijing has invested billions of dollars in an economic corridor with Pakistan and has traditionally supported its ally’s anti-terror campaigns. But China has also been cultivating the Taliban since returning to power in 2021, hosting diplomats appointed by the Islamist movement and meeting with other Afghan officials.

Iran’s foreign minister said the country is “ready to provide all assistance in facilitating dialogue.” Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, all of which have friendly ties with Pakistan, have tried to broker a ceasefire and promote talks.

Trump’s overtures to Munir have irritated India, Pakistan’s long-standing rival. The two nuclear powers exchanged air and missile strikes last year, their worst clashes in decades, and blame each other for backing militant groups. India has intensified its search for trade routes that bypass Pakistan.

TTP threat

Within Pakistan, the threat posed by the TTP has steadily increased. The group took responsibility for a suicide bombing near a courthouse in Islamabad in November that killed at least 12 people. But the brunt of the attacks is being borne by Pakistanis in the border areas.

A resident of Lakki Marwat, a town in that region, described how about 60 TTP gunmen arrived, demanding food and threatening to shoot residents who did not cook for them.

Border crossings between the countries have been closed for months and trade has come to a standstill. Pakistan’s exports have plummeted, while supply disruptions have pushed up food prices.

Neither side really wants full-blown conflict, and “this signals a willingness to agree to internationally mediated talks that would lead to a ceasefire,” said Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington. “But in the absence of a Taliban commitment to curb the TTP, it would only be a matter of time until the ceasefire is broken and violence resumes.”

More stories like this are available at bloomberg.com

Published on February 28, 2026

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