He will receive a $12 million signing bonus and a $5 million salary for the 2026 season. He would receive a $5 million buyout if he opts out for the remaining two years and $53 million. King would make $28 million in 2027 if he signs on and would then have a $30 million player option for the ’28 campaign. Although the Padres have yet to announce the deal, he has reportedly already passed his physical exam.
It’s a surprise upset for a San Diego team that would likely lose King Dylan stops in free agency. It wasn’t clear if they would have the spending capacity in the short term to keep both pitchers. While they were never expected to come close to the $210 million guarantee that Cease received, they will bring back King on a short-term deal to support a rotation that was their top priority.
The 2026 season will be the righty’s third in San Diego. The Padres acquired King to be their centerpiece Juan Soto return during the 2023-2024 offseason. He had had limited rotation options late in his final season as a Yankee after years of strong work out of the bullpen. San Diego committed to him as a full-time starter and was rewarded with a career season.
King pitched to a 2.95 earned run average with 201 strikeouts in 173 2/3 innings. He finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting and entered his walk-on year as a candidate for a nine-figure contract. He appeared headed for a deal worth more than $150 million after an even better start to the ’25 campaign. He posted a 2.59 ERA while striking out 28.4% of batters in his first 10 starts.
The Padres scratched King from his May 24 appearance with stiffness in his pitching shoulder. Then-manager Mike Shildt initially described it as a minor problem that arose when the pitcher slept uncomfortably. It turned out to be a much bigger problem. King was on the injured list with what the team called inflammation. They then determined that it was nerve damage that came with a vague timeline. He ended up missing for almost three months.
King made his return on August 9. He made one start before going down again with left knee inflammation. That cost him another month, and when he returned for good in September, he wasn’t as effective. King hasn’t gone beyond five innings in any of his last four starts. He gave up 10 runs in 15 2/3 innings. The most damage was caused by an eight-point drubbing by the Mets on September 16. King’s last two outings have been scoreless, but those came with an uninspiring strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7:6.
The Padres didn’t fully trust King entering October. They chose Nick PivettaStop, and Yu Darvish starting in their Wild Card Series loss to the Cubs. King’s only playoff action was one scoreless inning in relief in the deciding Game 3. He struck out three of four batters while averaging 95.6 MPH with his fastball. That was his fastest speed in one game of the season. That was to be expected in a one-inning outing with the heightened adrenaline of a must-win game, but it was an encouraging sign for the health of his shoulder.
San Diego submitted the qualifying bid of $22.025 million. It was easy for King to decline in search of a multi-year deal. This arrangement acts as a kind of cushion contract, but with a much higher floor than the one-year QO would have provided. King would make $22 million if he opts out after one year. That result would be the same as if he had accepted the qualifying offer. The two extra guaranteed seasons offer him much more injury protection.
King’s guarantee technically falls just under MLBTR’s four-year $80 million forecast. However, the higher average annual value and the opt-outs make this a stronger deal for the player. He will have the opportunity to return to free agency prior to his age-32 season and cannot be tagged with another qualifying offer. A healthier season could earn him a four- or five-year contract.
Health is no small caveat. The ’24 campaign marks the only time King has even reached 105 innings in a season. While that’s partly because the Yankees used him as a reliever, King missed 2021 (finger bruise) and ’22 (elbow fracture) in addition to this year’s shoulder issues. The Padres face some injury risk, but get the benefit of a top prospect on a short-term deal.
King and Pivetta are their two best starters. San Diego has reportedly discussed the latter in trade talks, but would need a huge trade to move him. Joe Musgrove is back from Tommy John surgery and finds himself in the third rotation spot. They will be without Darvish for the entire season, so the final two starting jobs are up for grabs. Randy Vasquez And JP Sears lead the in-house options, but the Padres could look for a cheaper back-end/swing type later in the winter. They’ll also surely kick the tires on verifiable weapons trading, as both Pivetta and King can opt out.
San Diego’s projected payroll increases to $218 million, as calculated by Grid source. The backloaded nature does not change the $25MM AAV used for luxury tax purposes. They are expected to have $259 million in tax liabilities. They will exceed the $244 million base threshold for the second season in a row. Repeat payers are taxed at a rate of 30% for their first $20 million in surpluses. Re-signing King will cost approximately $4.5 million in taxes.
The key development is that it brings them closer to the second tier of $264 million, with interest rates rising to 42%. The Padres had nearly $280 million in luxury tax liabilities this year, according to the Padres Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, their actual salary obligations were around $209 million, so it’s unclear how much more flexibility the front office has at its disposal. In addition to the need for a back-end starter, they would need to acquire another bat to plug in at first base or a designated hitter and could use a better infielder than Will Wagner And Mason McCoy.
King’s deal is the second-largest offseason deal in a slowly developing free agent starting pitching market. Cease is the only other starter signed for more than $40 million to date. The rotation market should pick up in the coming weeks. NPB star Tatsuya Imai must sign before his 45-day mailing period closes on January 2. Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez And Zac Gallen join Imai as the best unsigned arms.
Mark Feinsand by MLB.com was First about the agreement, contract terms and the comment that the physical has already been completed. Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images.
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