Stock market forecast in the week of August 31 = Trend
ANALYSIS
The stock market prospects continue to show an upward trend for US shares, despite last week’s weak labor data.
The S&P500 ($ Spx) rose 0.3%. The index is ~ 2% above the 50-day advancing average and ~ 9% above the 200-day advancing average.
The ADX directoral indicators crossed briefly after the holiday weekend, but immediately returned to Bullish; Not surprising considering the most important reading is approaching 20. Three distribution days fell from the count, but two were added, so the total remains at seven (> 5 = high). Price remains above the most important progressing averages, so that the signal remains neutral.
SPX price and volume card before September 7, 2025
Performance comparisons
Communication ($ XLC) Last week better than energy, while energy ($ XLE) returned some recent profit. Consumers staples ($ XLP) Improved from Beerarish to Bullish after last week’s drop, and utilities ($ XLE) Fell test its biased level.
S&P sector performance from week 36 of 2025
Small Cap value ($ IWN) surpassed all other styles for a fourth week in a row; High beta ($ SHBB) underperformed. Low beta ($ SPLV) Test a bias level that goes from bullish the neutral.
Sector style performance from week 36 of 2025
Gold ($ Gld) LED assets for a second week to the top while oil ($ Use) Was the worst artist. No changes in bias to start the week.
Acti -class performance of week 36 2025
COMMENTARY
ISM services and Production PMI were higher in August, although the production remains contractive.
Shock (July) and non-agricultural wage lists (August) Show some weakness on the labor market, where both data sets are lower than expected. Given the recent back and forth over the validity of the US government statistics, it is difficult to become too enthusiastic about the figures. That said, markets responded as if the Federal Reserve received the green light to lower interest rates this month.
This Tuesday, the annual revision of NFP data will be released, with expectations for a decrease of 818k jobs, which increases the pressure to convenience. Then August PPI and CPI will hit the threads. Expect a few fleeting opening this week!
The best for your week!
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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank or St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, Tradingconics.com, US Bureau or Economic Analysis, US Bureau or Labor Statistics, Tradingconics.com
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