The College Football Playoff quarterfinals continue on New Year’s Day with a three-game package, starting with the Orange Bowl between the No. 5 Oregon Ducks and the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders. Oregon comes into this playoff game having put up a 50-burger on James Madison in the first round, while Texas Tech has a bye after its Big 12 Championship – which I think is the best game on Thursday’s card. Make sure you get over the New Year’s Eve hangover quickly as the CFP action kicks off at noon ET on ESPN.
Let’s jump right into my Oregon vs. Texas Tech Picks.
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Odds
Moneyline: Oregon -130 / Texas Tech +110
Spread: Oregon -2.5 (-108) / Texas Tech +2.5 (-112)
Total: More than 51.5 (-112) / less than 51.5 (-108)
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Best Bet No. 1: Oregon 1H ML (-125)
This matchup has thriller potential in the late game and could ultimately go either way from a full game perspective. However, I feel strongly about Oregon taking the lead at halftime despite this game being played at 12:00 PM ET on the East Coast with a body clock of 9:00 AM PT. Texas Tech certainly has a strong analytical profile, but I wonder if the Red Raiders are truly tested like they will be against the Ducks on Thursday. Texas Tech comes into this matchup with a strong schedule that Sagarin ranks 65th, while Oregon’s current 12-1 record against a top-15 power came into the schedule with its lone loss coming to the undefeated, top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers.
The Red Raiders are extremely attractive as an underdog given how strong their defensive assets are, but I’d say they haven’t played against an offense — especially a passing attack — as strong as Oregon’s. Oregon QB Dante Moore ranks second in PFF’s passer grade, as well as top four in big throws and NFL passer rating, and is the most productive passer the Red Raiders will ever see this year. Likewise, Oregon’s offensive line is the best blocking unit Tech will have lined up against. The Ducks top the national rankings in PFF’s pass blocking, while ranking in the top 15 in sacks and tackles for loss allowed and in the top 20 in PFF run blocking and non-garbage timeline yards. This unit is built to withstand the pressure of Texas Tech’s front seven, and should be able to give Moore enough time in the pocket to make throws downfield against what amounts to the weaker part of the Red Raider defense: the secondary.
It’s worth noting that – while the sample size is small in the fledgling 12-team playoff format – no team with a first-round bye won the quarterfinals last year. None of them led at halftime either. The month-long layoff adds some rust to the top four teams in the league as they face off against teams that were playing just a week and a half ago. I expect Oregon to use that to its advantage early in this game, not only because the Ducks already have a playoff game under their belts, but also because head coach Dan Lanning and his program have been to the CFP quarterfinals before. Joey McGuire and Texas Tech have never been in this position before, and given the long break between the Big 12 title game and the CFP, I imagine the Red Raiders are suffering from more early-game jitters than the Ducks.
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Best Player Prop Bet: Dante Moore Over 231.5 passing yards (-115)
This number feels light considering how good Moore and the Oregon passing attack have been this year. The Ducks finished the regular season top 15 in both PPA per pass and completion rate, while Moore threw for over 3,000 yards and finished in the top three in completion percentage and top 15 in yards per attempt. He surpassed that number in eight of 12 FBS matchups this year, and given how strong Texas Tech’s front seven is, Moore will likely be relied on to exploit the Red Raider secondary and methodically move the Ducks down the field.
As previously mentioned, Moore is the best quarterback Tech has ever seen this season. I would also argue that Kansas’ Jalon Daniels and Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt are the two best passers the Red Raiders have seen to date, and both surpassed that number with room to spare.
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