How do Newcastle United and the other 35 Champions League clubs on this season 2025/26?
We’re going to find out.
The competition phase of the Champions League starts later today at 5.45 pm, the first of three days/nights in a row of the first round of competitions.
Eight rounds in the competition phase, in which each of the 36 clubs plays four games and four at home.
Opta has done their Champions League 2025-26 projections for all 36 teams.
The athletics has dealt with those projections in a new one report – September 16, 2025:
During the season we will publish projections – powered by OPTA – data …
Each team plays eight games in the new competition phase, four at home and four away. They play eight different opponents, instead of making the same teams home and away, as was the case in the previous size. The Top Eight Catches in the competition automatically qualify for the round of 16. Teams ending from 9th to 24th in the competition participating in a two-legged knock-out phase play-off, with the winner of each match-up on the way to the last 16 of the competition. Teams that ended in the competition -phase 25th or lower are eliminated from the competition. No teams fall to the Europa League.
Methodology
Opta’s Win Prediction Model estimates the chance of the outcome of each match (win, drawing or loss) by using a combination of grocerus and Opta’s team ranking from Team Power. The opportunities and rankings are based on historical and recent team performance and the competition as a whole is simulated 10,000 times to produce a final projection for each side.
For MatchDay 1
How to stack teams in the race for automatic qualification and the play -offs in the Champions League
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So the Opta predictions for Newcastle United
Predicted number of points from the eight league matches – 12 points of a possible 24.
Percentage chance of immediate elimination in the competition phase – a 17% chance of ending 25th or lower.
Percentage opportunity to end in the play-offs and a 55% chance of ending between the 9th and 24th.
Percentage opportunity to end the top eight in the competition phase and directly to Knock -Out the last 16 – a 27% chance to finish top eight.
Percentage opportunity to win the Champions League – a 3% chance to win the whole thing!
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