Bitcoin has failed to regain higher prices, reinforcing growing belief that the market may be entering a deeper bearish phase. After multiple attempts to break above key resistance levels, BTC continues to trade sideways with declining momentum, reflecting a clear shift in investor sentiment. Fear is rising across the market and price action is not yet showing convincing signs of recovery.
According to new data shared by Axel Adler, several structural on-chain and market indicators now support a continuation of bearish conditions in the coming months. Adler’s analysis points to weakening demand, continued selling pressure and deteriorating liquidity – factors that historically precede extended correction periods.
While Bitcoin has remained above critical support zones, its inability to reach higher highs or sustain a recovery suggests buyers remain cautious and largely defensive.
Furthermore, broader market conditions show similar fragility, with derivatives positioning, stablecoin flows and long-term holder behavior all pointing to reduced conviction. This confluence of factors reinforces the bearish thesis and implies that volatility could increase before the market reaches a meaningful bottom.
Bitcoin MVRV Spread Signals a Deep Bear Phase
Adler’s analysis highlights one of the clearest structural indicators pointing to continued bearish conditions: the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Bull vs. Bear Market Model. In particular, he notes that the 30-day to 365-day MVRV spread is very negative and continues to deteriorate.
This spread measures the difference in profitability between short-term and long-term holders, and when the short-term cohort significantly underperforms, it traditionally indicates risk aversion, exhaustion and weakening demand.
A crossover – where the 30-day MVRV rises above the 365-day benchmark – has historically marked the transition from bear markets to new bullish phases. However, Adler emphasizes that such a crossover does not appear imminent under the current circumstances. The spread remains well below the threshold needed for a structural reversal, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin is still in a deep bear phase within the framework of this model.
Cycle analogues further support this interpretation. Looking back at previous market cycles, Adler estimates that the next likely window for a meaningful crossover will be in the second half of 2026. This implies that even if short-term rallies do occur, they are more likely to be counter-trend than in the early stages of a sustained bull market. Until the MVRV structure improves, broader sentiment may remain decisively bearish.
Price struggles to regain momentum
Bitcoin continues to move sideways, reflecting a market that remains indecisive and structurally weak. The chart shows BTC trading around $92,000, after a sharp decline from the $120,000 region, with recent candles forming a tight consolidation range. This behavior generally signals a temporary stabilization phase rather than a confirmed reversal, especially given the broader bearish context highlighted by on-chain and macro indicators.
The 50-day moving average is well above current price, acting as dynamic resistance and indicating that short-term momentum remains firmly bearish. Likewise, the 100- and 200-day moving averages are trending down, creating a compression zone that BTC has yet to challenge. Until Bitcoin can reclaim these levels with conviction, the rallies may be faded by sellers.
Despite the small recovery from the sub-$90,000 level, buying activity remains subdued compared to the heavy selling volume that caused the initial collapse. This indicates that demand is insufficient to absorb the longer-term selling pressure.
Structurally, Bitcoin forms lower highs and lower lows throughout the daily time frame, reinforcing a downtrend. A decisive break below $90,000 would expose deeper liquidity zones between $86,000 and $84,000. Conversely, recovering $96,000 would be the first sign of strength, but current price action is not yet showing such momentum.
Featured image of ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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