The final quarterfinal of the College Football Playoff on New Year’s Day will see familiar SEC foes the Ole Miss Rebels and the Georgia Bulldogs collide in the Sugar Bowl. These teams have already met once this season and the Rebels held a 35-26 lead in the fourth quarter before the Bulldogs scored 17 unanswered points to win by eight. This time, the Rebels will look for a different outcome against the SEC champions when the ball flies at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN.
Here are my favorite bets for Ole Miss vs. Georgia.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs Odds
Moneyline: Ole Miss +200 / Georgia -245
Spread: Ole Miss +6 (-105) / Georgia -6 (-115)
Total: More than 55.5 (-110) / less than 55.5 (-110)
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs Best Bet No. 1: Georgia -6 (-115)
I’ll start by saying that this isn’t a rule you should rush to implement pregame because you might get a better song live. Georgia has made a habit of starting slow against power conference opponents, and with a long layoff following the SEC Championship, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that again here – and I’m already betting on Ole Miss 1Q +3.5 as a result. However, I believe Georgia head coach Kirby Smart is one of – if not the best – playmakers in the sport, allowing the Bulldogs to run away from opponents in the second half just as they did against the Rebels in Athens earlier this year.
The Lane Kiffin drama surrounding Ole Miss was not a factor playing at home against Tulane, but Kiffin’s absence could be magnified in this game. It’s hard to trust a group of coordinators with minimal to no head coaching experience in any game, let alone a College Football Playoff game against Smart and the Dawgs. While I expect Ole Miss to have a solid first quarter through the early game script, once Georgia gets established, the Bulldogs should be able to pull away from the Rebels behind their strong rushing offense and better defense. Ole Miss finished the regular season 129th in PPA per rush and 94th in conversion rate allowed while giving up 4.26 yards per attempt – which ranks 72nd. That’s not very reassuring against a backfield as strong as Georgia’s. By comparison, the Bulldogs come into this game with top-20 marks in all three of the aforementioned metrics, along with top-35 marks on early-downs PPA and conversion rate allowed since Week 9. They back that up with a secondary that ranks in the top 20 in PPA per pass and passing PPA allowed since late October, in addition to a more efficient red zone unit on both sides of the ball. Look for the Dawgs to go out late and cover this number.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs Best Player Prop Bet: Nate Frazier Over 58.5 rushing yards (-114)
In all of Georgia’s biggest games, Nate Frazier has been relied on to carry the load in the run game. The second-year running back has racked up 861 yards on 5.4 yards per attempt this season, and he has faced at least 12 attempts in each of the seven games since the controversial win at Auburn in early October. Additionally, he has surpassed this number in four of Georgia’s last six games against power conference opponents.
Ole Miss’ run defense is the weakest part of the stopping unit, as previously mentioned, and the Rebels have surrendered more than 60 yards to their opponent’s leading rusher in almost every game this year. Recently, Ole Miss had Tulane’s Jamauri McClure rush for 84 yards, while Mississippi State’s Fluff Bothwell had 80 and Florida’s Jaden Baugh had 61. Look for Frazier to continue that trend.
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