Iran and the US agreed on key “guiding principles” on Tuesday in talks aimed at resolving their long-standing nuclear dispute, but that does not mean a deal is imminent, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said.Analysts remained cautious about the potential for sustained progress.
“While a meaningful breakthrough would ease geopolitical tensions and potentially boost Iranian oil supplies, we remain skeptical that this outcome will be achieved in the near term,” Tony Sycamore, an IG market analyst, said in a note to clients.
Political consultancy Eurasia Group said in a note to clients on Tuesday that it believes the probability of US attacks on Iran by the end of April is 65%.
Oil prices were also depressed by reports from Russian media that production from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field, one of the world’s largest, rose after a suspension in January. Tengiz plans to reach full capacity by February 23, Reuters sources said.
The market will focus on the weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute, due later in the day, and the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, on Thursday.
Analysts polled by Reuters estimate that U.S. crude oil inventories likely rose last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories likely fell.
They expect crude oil inventories to have risen by about 2.3 million barrels in the week to February 13, while gasoline inventories fell by about 200,000 barrels and distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, fell by about 1.6 million barrels.
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