It will be a showdown between the two winners of the opening match in Group Jimmy Connors when Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz collide at the Nitto ATP Finals on Tuesday afternoon.
These familiar foes have already faced off three times during the 2025 campaign, including twice this fall. Fritz won 6-3, 6-2 in the Laver Cup before Alcaraz scored a 6-4, 6-4 victory in the Tokyo final. The world number 1 leads the head-to-head series 4-1, after also recording victories at the 2023 Miami Masters and the 2024 Laver Cup.
Tuesday’s matchup should be a good one. Fritz is clearly a significant underdog, but he was excellent in 6-3, 6-4 defeat of Lorenzo Musetti on Monday. The sixth-seeded American was well rested coming into Turin and – even without days off – he remains that way after beating Musetti without too much trouble.
Alcaraz is closing in on the year-end No. 1 ranking after beating Alex de Minaur 7-6(5), 6-2 on Sunday. Two more match wins at some point during the week (or if Jannik Sinner doesn’t win the title of course) will be enough for the 22-year-old. But ultimately he wants to lift the trophy; a trophy that eluded him during his first two trips to the Nitto ATP Finals.
This is a winnable match for Fritz. The surface is in his favor, he finished second behind Sinner in Turin last year and his head-to-head history against Alcaraz is largely competitive.
Unfortunately for the underdog, his only arguable advantage over Alcaraz comes from backhand-to-backhand rallies. If the top seed hits his backhand like he did against De Minaur, Fritz – and everyone else in the field except Sinner – will have a hard time pulling off an upset.
Choice: Alcaraz in 3
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