The experts’ picks are back for the seemingly inevitable Nitto ATP Finals championship match between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. A panel of three teams makes its predictions for Sunday afternoon.
Ricky: After their historic French Open final, won by Alcaraz from the three-way championship, these two rivals played three consecutive matches that could not be considered epic matches. By their standards, that’s a relative drought. It is a drought that should end in Turin on Sunday. This has all the makings of an absolute blockbuster. Combined, Alcaraz and Sinner are 8-0 overall and 16-1 in total sets this week. The result is a first-ever final appearance in the year-end championship for Alcaraz, while Sinner are the defending champions and playing in their third consecutive final at the Inalpi Arena. Considering the current level of Sinner, the history of Turin, the home advantage and the surface of indoor hard courts, could win this one with relative ease. That said, it’s hard to look past Alcaraz’s 11-5 H2H lead. And the bottom line is that I refuse to pick anything other than an instant classic for what is the best rivalry in tennis and one of the best rivalries in all of sports. Sinner in 3: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(5).
Cheryl: The best in the world are competing for the sixth time this year. One thing is certain: Alcaraz has Sinner’s number. Sinner has suffered five losses this entire year (plus one retirement due to injury) – four of them coming to Alcaraz and two of them coming in the finals of the majors. Sinner isn’t really losing to anyone else right now… except him do losing to Alcaraz. And often. That suggests Sinner has a legitimate matchup problem with the Spaniard, and as such it’s oh-so tempting to keep picking Alcaraz. But this time I’m not going to do it. First off, I think Sinner is the better indoor player. They only played indoors once and that was it way in 2021 when Sinner was mortal (Alcaraz won). It’s been around Alcaraz pretty much all year, but I think it’s Sinner’s time. Sinner in 3: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(5).
Pete (Tennis insight): Once again the titans of the ATP Tour will meet in a final in 2025 – for the sixth time in six months, in fact! The H2H is heavily lopsided in Alcaraz’s favor as the Spaniard has won every match this year with the exception of the Wimbledon final. That match was immediately dissected for two weeks, diligently studied in detail – and the result was the implementation of new tactics designed specifically for the next time Alcaraz faced Sinner. Sure enough, the 22-year-old won the shortened Cincinnati final and the US Open crown against the Italian, taking away the No. 1 ranking at the same time. Year-end number 1 was recorded for Alcaraz earlier this week in Turin. Sinner has yet to drop a set in his four matches leading up to the final, while Alcaraz has only increased the distance once this week. However, this fact makes it meaningless to the finale, which is what really matters this matchup that was fully expected by anyone with even a marginal knowledge of tennis in 2025. Apart from a retirement in Shanghai, Sinner has not lost since the US Open final – winning titles in three events leading to Turin. Alcaraz has played sparingly since New York, winning the Tokyo ATP 500 a few weeks after lifting the trophy at Flushing Meadows. The work on regaining the No. 1 ranking now begins for Sinner. It is his determination and laser focus that will secure the title as he triumphs for only the second time in their last nine meetings. Sinner in 3: 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-4.
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