With no one yet mathematically eliminated from Group Jimmy Connors, everything is still up for grabs as Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti prepare to take on the Nitto ATP Finals on Thursday evening.
More than just a place in the semi-finals is at stake for Alcaraz. With one more match win, he will reach the No. 1 ranking at the end of the year. The top-ranked Spaniard has put himself in a position to do just that with wins so far in Turin over Alex de Minaur (7-6(5), 6-2) and Taylor Fritz (6-7(2), 7-5, 6-3). In his third appearance in the year-end championship, this is the first time that Alcaraz wins his first two round-robin matches.
Musetti has played the match of the tournament so far, beating De Minaur 7-5, 3-6, 7-5 after two hours and 47 minutes from 5-3 down in the third set. Having previously lost 6-3, 6-4 to Fritz, Musetti would have been eliminated with another defeat and this match against Alcaraz would have been a proverbial dead rubber. Instead, the ninth-ranked Italian is still alive for semi-final qualification.
Thursday is the ninth meeting between these two players, with Alcaraz dominating the head-to-head series 7-1 (6-1 in the main tour). They have gone head-to-head three times this season, all in short stretches on clay (Alcaraz had the upper hand in Monte Carlo, Rome and at Roland Garros). Musetti’s only win came via a 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-4 decision in the 2022 Hamburg final.
The underdog has a chance to make this match competitive, at least for a short period of time. His home fans won’t let him go without a fight, just as they inspired him to make an epic comeback against De Minaur. Still, fatigue must be a factor. This is Musetti’s eighth tournament since the US Open – a shocking number – and he is coming off his final run in Athens. An almost three-hour battle with De Minaur does not help.
Although the entertainment level should be high, keep in mind that Alcaraz will eventually get away with it.
Choice: Alcaraz in 2
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