Dirt sprints are the bread and butter of American Thoroughbred racing and the $2 million Cygames Breeders’ Cup Sprint is the crown jewel of the division, with the winner taking home the Eclipse Award as champion sprinter in 10 of the past 11 years and 13 of the past 15 seasons.
This year’s six-furlong race on Nov. 1 at Del Mar drew the top three finishers from last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint (also at Del Mar) – Straight No Chaser, Bentornato and Mullikin – from a deep, talented group of 17 pre-entered sprinters.
As always, the Breeders’ Cup Sprint presents bettors with a challenging handicapping puzzle, so let’s explore the last 25 editions of the race from 2000 through 2024 for some key data that can help pick this year’s winner.
Recent form
Looking through the data for the last 25 winners, the most obvious trend is a strong final race. Sixteen of the last 25 winners achieved a win and 22 of the 25 finished first or second in their final Breeders’ Cup prep race. Only 2008 winner Midnight Lute and 2020 winner Whitmore entered the race without unplaced finishes. The former won the Sprint last year and returned from nine months off with an uneventful effort, but it sharpened him for a repeat victory. Whitmore was fourth in his final prep before his 2020 Sprint victory, but he was racing in the Sprint for the fourth year in a row after finishing second in 2018 and third in 2019.
Repeat bids
Straight No Chaser will be aiming for a repeat win in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Sprint after rising from third place a year ago to win by half a length. Since 2000, there have been 11 horses seeking a repeat win in the Sprint. Midnight Lute won in 2008, Roy H repeated in 2018 and Elite Power went back-to-back in 2022-’23. Secret Circle came second to Work All Week in 2014, after winning in 2013. The other seven remained unplaced the year after their sprint victory.
The spa and Santa Anita
Fourteen of the last 25 Breeders’ Cup winners came from a preliminary race at Santa Anita Park (8) or Saratoga Race Course (6). Add three at Belmont Park and one at Aqueduct, and 40% of the winners in this period came from the preparations in New York.
Second year sprinters
Since 2000, six three-year-olds have proven they are up to the task of beating older horses in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but that hasn’t happened since Runhappy (2015) and Drefong (2016) won back-to-back editions. Previously, the three-year winners were all longshots: Squirtle Squirt ($21.20 for a $2 win bet in 2001), Cajun Beat ($47.60, 2003), Silver Train ($25.80, 2005) and Trinniberg ($29.40, 2012). Four of the six entered the race on the back of victories, with Squirtle Squirt and Trinniberg finishing second by half a length.
Must figure
The average winning Equibase Speed Figure over the past quarter century for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint was 117.5 with a median of 118. The winning figure ranged from 108 to 128, with 23 of 25 achieving a score of 111 or higher. When looking for a winner, focus on sprinters who consistently run in that range or at least have a career best in that range. Likewise, 20 of the last 25 winners entered the race with a win at Level 2 or better.
Tactical speed
Twelve of the last 25 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winners have been pacers or pacers, so having tactical speed has proven to be a major advantage in the race. The only true deep closer to win the Sprint since 2000 was Midnight Lute in 2007 and 2008.
The battle for position
Tactical speed is a valuable asset in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but it is far from a guarantee that it will lead to a trip at or near the front. In fact, only two of the last 25 winners led after the first quarter mile and only five were in front with a quarter mile to go in the race. There are often so many fast horses in the race that tactical speed simply keeps the winner within the range of a fast pace. Fifteen of the 25 winners were in the top three after half a mile and seven were fifth or worse, but only Midnight Lute in 2007 was more than 4 ½ lengths back at that point in the race with a median of 1 ½ lengths back at the quarter pole.
Where is the value
There have been six favorites to win the past 25 editions of the Sprint and 11 winners at less than 4-1 odds, but the race has produced plenty of upsets, with nine winners paying $20 or more for a $2 win bet and five paying $30 or more: Cajun Beat (22.80-1 odds in 2003), Thor’s Echo (15.60-1, 2006), Dancing in Silks (25.30-1, 2009), Everything Works Week (19.10-1, 2014) and Whitmore (18.40-1, 2020). Of the nine $20 winners, four claimed a win, four came second and were beaten by a length or less, and Whitmore finished fourth before making his fourth start in the sprint.
On the dirt in California
Twelve of the last 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup have been held in Southern California, but for this exercise let’s eliminate the all-weather editions in 2008 and 2009 and focus on the editions held on a main dirt track, such as this year’s edition.
Favorites have won just two of the 10 editions on dirt in Southern California, with four double-digit longshot winners. Seven of the ten took part in the sprint after a win and none were worse than second place in their final preparation race. Three out of ten were three-year-olds.
Only one of the ten winners led after the first half mile, but nine of the ten were within 3 ½ lengths of the leader and seven of the ten entered the race having shown the ability to apply pressure or set the pace. Five of them were in the lead early in the stretch and nine of the ten were in the top three, so tactical speed was advantageous.
A specialist breed
I love the distance cut in sprint racing betting as a general handicapping principle, but that hasn’t been an effective strategy in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The average distance covered by Breeders’ Cup Sprint winners – during the year of victory prior to the World Championships – over the past 25 editions was 6.5 furlongs and 23 of the winners averaged seven furlongs or less. It’s even more of a sprinters’ race on the dirt in Southern California, with the 10 winners’ average distance of 6.37 furlongs and a median of 6.4 furlongs leading up to the Breeders’ Cup.
Evaluating the 2025 Breeders’ Cup sprint cast
It makes sense to start by defending the winner Straight up not a hunter. The Sprint is a race where repeat victories are possible – we’ve had three repeat winners since 2008 – but it’s a formidable challenge with eight other horses failing in the quest over the past quarter century. Straight No Chaser finishes in third place in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes presented by Estrella Jalisco in his first start after a 5.5 month layoff, so he might have needed the race. Third place is a plus, but Straight No Chaser is definitely a six-furlong specialist, coming out of a prep race at Santa Anita with plenty of tactical speed, and he proved a year ago he’s fast enough to win.
The same applies to last year’s number two Welcome back seems like a top winning candidate. He returned from more than 10 months off with a 5½-long romp in the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes on September 13 at Churchill Downs. He earned a career-high 117 Equibase Speed Figure for that win, just off the pace, so he is in top form, possesses great tactical speed and proved up to the challenge of his class when he finished second by half a length in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He would be the first sprint winner this century to come from a prep race at Churchill Downs, but he is a winning candidate.
The top two finishers of the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, winner Imagination and second Dr. Venkmanwill rematch with Straight No Chaser in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Imagination had been competing in longer distance races and had been cut to six furlongs to halt a seven-race winless streak for Hall of Fame trainer and five-time Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Bob Baffert. Likewise, Dr. Venkman better at slightly longer distances. Neither profiles itself as a typical sprint specialist, but both are fast enough to compete.
Lovesick blues has made five of his six starts on turf this year, but his only dirt race was a 1 ¾-length score in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes at six furlongs at Del Mar. He’s a proven sprinter, but not necessarily one filthy sprinter, and he’s more of an off-pace runner, which could hinder his chances. That said, if the pace is particularly high in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Lovesick Blues could be the beneficiary at a track he likes.
Last year the Breeders’ Cup Sprint finished in third place Me, too is winless in four starts this year, finishing a well-beaten seventh in a Class 1 race in August at Saratoga. He was much better a year ago. Exile made his last two starts at 1 1/8 miles, including a win in the Charles Town Classic Stakes, but this is a tough spot to shorten the distance by three furlongs and he finishes in third place. Crazy House is a committed frontrunner who joins from Parx Racing and will face a tough class test after an easy 2 ¾ length win on his ranking debut. Mad House, a 3-year-old, has never won due to slow pace and will face significant pressure on Nov. 1 at Del Mar, but he could sustain a small price war at a high price. Big city lights is a very fast sprinter for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella, but he is making his first start since Jan. 18 in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and has never won above the Level 3 level. I don’t think Stoll Keenon is an Ogden Phoenix Stakes winner Nakatomi or winner of the Vosburgh Stakes Patriotic spirit are fast enough to beat this group.
Based in Japan American stage And Puro magic offers some intrigue, but the former has never won a group stakes race and the latter is first favored in the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and is winless on the main circuit in one start.
Females Tamara And A copy were among the pre-entries for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but both are listed as first preference in the PNC Bank Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. If they were to focus on the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and face men, they would try to join Very Subtle (1987), Safely Kept (1990) and Desert Stormer (1995) as female winners of this race. The start of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in 2007 has led to fewer female competitors in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Kopion recently finished second in a Class 2 race at 1 1/16 miles, while Tamara won a 6 ½ furlong sprint in her return after more than 10 months off. I prefer both in the Mare and Mare Sprint.
#historical #tips #bet #Breeders #Cup #Sprint