Nifty’s long-term uptrend is intact, but short-term trend is turning cautiously below 25,900: Vinay Rajani

The Nifty has entered a phase of near-term weakness after dipping below the 25,900 mark, although the broader uptrend remains intact unless key support levels are breached, Vinay Rajani, AVP – Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst, HDFC Securities, said in an interview with ET Now.Rajani said a simple technical reading shows contrasting signals across time frames. “On the daily chart, the Nifty has formed lower highs and lower lows, indicating bearish momentum in the short term. The recent high at 26,057 was lower than the previous peak of 26,202,” he said.

However, the medium to long-term structure remains positive. “If you look at the weekly chart, the index is still forming higher highs and higher lows. Positionally, the Nifty is still in an uptrend even though the short-term trend has turned cautious,” Rajani added.

Important levels to watch

Rajani highlighted 26,060–26,063 as a crucial resistance zone. “A decisive move above 26,063 would confirm a bullish reversal by creating a new higher high and a higher low. That is the level bulls need to regain for momentum to return,” he said.

On the other hand, the index has strong support around 25,700, which coincides with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). “This zone has acted as a solid base. As long as there are still 25,700, there is still hope that the Nifty can resume its uptrend,” he noted.

However, a break below this level would change the character of the market. “Any sustained move below 25,700 would violate the bullish structure and could turn the trend into a positional downtrend,” Rajani warned.

Broader market under pressure

Rajani also pointed out that broader markets are starting to underperform, adding to near-term uncertainty. “Short-term charts show some negative developments, especially in the broader space. Therefore, a wait-and-see approach is advisable at this stage,” he said.

Market Outlook

In summary, Rajani said traders should remain cautious in the near term while keeping an eye on key technical triggers. “Above 26,060, the upward momentum may return. Below 25,700, the trend becomes decisively negative. Until then, the market is in a consolidation phase with a slight bearish bias in the short term,” he said.