Crosby has a 51.2% chance of scoring more than 2.5 shots on goal (SOG) against the Flames tonight, just as he did in their previous meeting this season.
This prop gets a 4.7% edge thanks to the plus-money odds at DraftKings, as well as a corresponding favorable trend, given a 3.5-star rating by our model on our NHL Trends page, recording at least 3 SOG in 7 of his last 11 games.
Crosby recorded 2 SOG last night and hasn’t gone below 3 SOG in back-to-back games since late December, and his matchup with the Flames is favorable as they rank bottom 10 in the NHL in both shots and goals against, and who will be starting goalie Dustin Wolf, who has seen 30+ shots and 4+ goals in five of six starts this month.
Betting: Sidney Crosby over 2.5 shots on goal (+115 on DraftKings)
Kaapo the Second (Kraken)
In the game Kraken vs. Islanders, our model identifies multiple prop edges from Seattle’s Kaapo Kakko, who is in the midst of one of the best months of his career and most productive period coming into last year’s Kraken midseason.
Kakko gets an edge if he scores both a point and an assist, with a higher probability on the point (46.0%), but slightly better value at longer odds (+220) on the assist, the prop we’re looking at.
Both props land on our trends page with a 5-star rating, both in 7 of Kakko’s past 11 matches.
However, all of those one-point games have been by way of assist – his only goals this month came in a match where he also recorded an assist and scored twice in that match. He has only scored a goal in two other games this season, making him much more likely to get a point via an assist, with his fair odds at +190.
The Islanders allow the third-fewest goals in the NHL, but projected starter Ilya Sorokin has allowed more than three goals in five of his past seven games, the other two being shutouts where he stopped 35 and 44 shots.
Betting: Kaapo Kakko to get an assist (+220 on DraftKings)
Brock Nelson (avalanche)
The final prop is our top scorer of the night, Brock Nelson of the Colorado Avalanche.
The 34-year-old has found a new home with the Avs after spending his first 11.5 seasons with the Islanders, scoring 30 goals in 66 games in blue and burgundy, including 24 this year.
Nelson not only gets a five-star trend from our model thanks to his high scoring in January, recording a total of 10 goals in his last 10 games, but also a Dimers lead with a 41.3% chance of lighting the lamp, for fair odds of just +140.
He’ll have the best chance of any lead player to score tonight as part of the league’s top-scoring offense against a Ducks team that recently allowed a streak of four or more goals in eight straight games.
Betting Bet: Brock Nelson, All-time Goalscorer (+160 on FanDuel)
How to bet these props in a parlay
While each of these NHL prop picks carries an individual betting opportunity identified by our model, bettors looking for alternative betting options can use this data in multiple ways, such as a three-leg parlay of the props above, or in a three-leg goalscorer parlay or round robin, for example – just more ways to use the Dimers data.
Based on probability, each player presents value to the market, with our model recommending them as regular bets based on the odds.
NHL Props Parlay (+1620 on DraftKings): B. Nelson 1+ goal, K. Kakko 1+ assist and S. Crosby 3+ SOG
Dimers’ NHL betting odds for the 2025-2026 season
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