Recent contract extensions have already reset the market and serve as a benchmark as the NHL prepares for another cap increase. The numbers associated with these deals show how aggressive teams are in keeping their core intact while players benefit from prime years in their careers.
Major expansions are reshaping the market
Kyle Connor set the pace this fall by agreeing to an eight-year, $96 million deal with the Winnipeg Jets. The contract gives Connor an annual average value of $12 million, reflecting his role as a consistent scorer and focal point of Winnipeg’s attack. The Jets wasted no time and money in securing one of the most reliable producers in the league.
Adrian Kempe committed to the Los Angeles Kings on an eight-year, $85 million contract, which gave him an average annual salary of $10.625 million per year. Kempe’s two-way play, speed and playoff performance convinced the Kings to make a significant investment in his future. His deal solidifies his status as a mainstay of the team’s forward line as they strive for more resounding postseason success, though some feel this may have been too much of a payment.
In Colorado, the Avalanche upped the ante by signing Martin Necas to an eight-year, $92 million contract extension. Necas earned an AAV of $11.5 million after his breakout season and versatility up front. Colorado has taken a decisive step to secure topline stability secure their return on the midseason Mikko Rantanen trade to the Carolina Hurricanes. The Avalanche traded Rantanen because he was a pending unrestricted free agent. Rantanen eventually signed an eight-year, $96 million contract with the Dallas Stars on March 7, 2025.
The Dallas Stars signed by Thomas Harley to an eight-year contract extension worth $84.6 million at the end of October 2025, locking in their emerging defensive anchor with an average annual value of just over $10.5 million. Harley’s steady improvement and skill in all situations earned him a prime spot on the Dallas blue line for most of the next decade.
Spotlight shifts to unresolved superstars
Amid a flurry of expansions, two names are dominating the conversation heading into 2026: Jason Robertson and Artemi Panarin. Robertson remains unsigned, with expectations that his new contract could match or exceed the recent benchmarks of Connor, Necas, Kempe and Harley. Dallas has made it clear that retaining Robertson is a top priority. Considering his back-to-back 40-goal campaigns and his status as a game-changing winger, an eight-year contract well above $90 million seems all but guaranteed.
Panarin will test his influence in New York. As the Rangers’ offensive engine and perennial All-Star, Panarin is in position for one of the richest contracts in league history. His next expansion could easily reach $95 million or more in eight years, with an annual value at the top of the winger market for upper-age production.
Cap Space is driving the new normal
Salary cap growth continues, giving teams more space and flexibility than ever before. A projected increase in the cap from $10 million to $15 million by 2026 has made front offices more aggressive. These moves are less about taking risks and more about taking advantage of today’s opportunities: locking up superstars before the market rebounds and other teams hunt for top talent that rarely reaches free agency.
This era is defined by blockbuster deals for franchise players, not short-term contracts or crony deals. Negotiations depend on production, peak years and ability to improve a team’s entire playoff trajectory. Clubs are investing in their future, willing to absorb higher average annual values and shifting their approach towards longer-term commitments to ensure squad stability.
The risks that remain
Even as massive expansions become the new standard, they are not without risk. Teams know the dangers of cap recapture penalties – which can strike if a player retires before a contract with a set term expires – and the late-career decline that often occurs before an eight-year contract is up. The front-office calculus has shifted: bets on the value of prime years are now weighed against the likelihood that late-term seasons will bring lower returns.
Bad contracts can set a cap for years to come, but not signing a franchise cornerstone is just as big a threat to staying competitive. Teams calculate carefully, while agents push for maximum guarantees and conditions in negotiations that have a ripple effect throughout the league.
Looking ahead to the 2026 negotiations
Connor, Necas, Kempe and Harley set a new benchmark for elite extensions. Then all eyes will be on Robertson and Panarin as the clubs and players wrap up an offseason that could redefine the highest level of NHL contracts. The stakes are high, the terms and dollars are escalating, and the landscape now favors bold, forward-looking commitments. If the salary cap continues to grow and players continue to produce, deals in the $90 to $100 million range will increasingly become the expectation – not the exception – in the evolving hockey market.
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