Week 6 is almost complete and betting lines are now available for week 7. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
Houston Texans vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3) [Total: 42.5]
Best bet: under 42.5
Riding a two-game win streak and a bye, on the surface the Texans appear to have found some answers to their offensive inefficiencies. Since Week 4, they own the highest touchdown drive percentage (42.1%) and second-highest EPA per play (0.261) in the NFL. Part of that comes from the offense’s newfound ability to operate without constant pressure on quarterback C.J. Stroud.
However, the Seahawks are in stark contrast to the defense of the Ravens and Titans. Mike Macdonald’s unit keeps teams off schedule and ranks fourth in successful play rate allowed on first and second downs allowed (30.2%), while limiting opposing offenses to scores on just 34.3% of drives (fifth best). As a unit that has used pass stunts with great success in the NFL this season (36.0%), expect Houston to utilize Houston’s fifth-best pressure percentage allowed (52.9%) against stunts.
While the Seahawks have fielded one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, their biggest results also came in games against defenses that couldn’t limit the connection between Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith and Njigba. Houston is relatively well equipped to have an answer behind a defense that allows the second-lowest EPA per pass.
Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets (-1.5) [Total: 43.5]
Best bet: Panthers moneyline
The Panthers had a great performance against the Cowboys in Week 6, finishing with a 60% passing percentage and an average of 6.45 yards per play. Running back Rico Dowdle had another otherworldly performance, running for 183 yards on six yards per carry and adding another 56 yards as a receiver. Dallas’ rushing attack, which ranked first in success rate coming into the game, was stymied, losing nearly -0.45 points per rush and gaining just 31 yards on 19 carries.
There’s little to say about the Jets’ Week 6 show. The team lost yards to dropbacks and posted one of the worst offensive performances without turnovers in many years. The offense appears to be one of the weakest in the NFL – and should be treated as such.
In this Week 7 matchup with the Panthers, the hapless Jets will face a surging defense that could cause even more problems for their offense. Not to mention that Carolina’s ground game and quarterback Bryce Young are firing on all cylinders. The Panthers should have no trouble moving the ball and slowing down New York’s offense. The Jets are also adjusting to a trip to London, so Carolina should be favored this week.
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