Same-game parlays (SGPs) allow you to combine multiple bets from one game into one ticket, increasing the potential payout if your game script is applied. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven stories – how a match is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.
This week we’re also leaning on the new PFF Player Prop Tool, available exclusively in the PFF app PFF+ members. It highlights the props with the highest likelihood of success, surfaces matchup insights that NFL teams track themselves, and syncs with sportsbooks in real time so you always know where the best number is.
Here are our top SGP picks for Week 6, each linked to a clear story the data suggests could be playing out.
Titans QB Cam Ward builds on his Week 5 performance
The Raiders have been one of the biggest pass funnels in the league this season, ranking seventh in EPA allowed against the run, but fourth worst in EPA allowed against the pass. As a result, opponents throw 2% more against them than expected when adjusted for the game situation, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.
While Ward has struggled in most passing metrics this season, he is throwing at least average deep in one area. If he finds success through the air, it will almost certainly come through the deep ball.
Elic Ayomanor leads the team in routes, average depth of target and deep separation, teaming with Calvin Ridley to command the majority of Ward’s deep targets.
SGP Build: 75-1 on DraftKings
Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins overtake an injury-depleted Chargers team
One way to expand our matchup-based betting that removes Justin Herbert’s protection is to back the Dolphins on the other side, betting on increased play volume and a favorable game script as the path to victory.
The Dolphins have been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL this season, which should lead to plenty of play volume through the air — even if efficiency drops, yardage numbers should still pile up.
Perhaps to offset the injuries, the Chargers have shifted their defensive approach, using 40% of dropbacks over the past two weeks (up from about 25% in the first three games) and playing man coverage nearly 30% of the time (up from about 15%). That could spell trouble against Tua Tagovailoa, who has shredded man coverage this season with the best EPA per play among quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks.
If the Chargers struggle with pass protection, they could be forced to lean on the ground game — even when playing from behind — making Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins intriguing negative correlation options within this parlay.
SGP build: 31-1 on Draftkings
Patrick Mahomes and Tyquan Thornton burn the Detroit Lions secondary deep down the field
Despite the return of Xavier Worthy, Tyquan Thornton maintained a solid role in the Chiefs offense, routing on 50% of the team’s dropbacks. He’s now playing a strong game against a depleted Lions secondary and a scheme that plays to his strengths: man coverage and single-high safety looks.
Detroit has used single-high coverage on 63% of its defensive snaps, the third-highest rate in the NFL.
This is exactly the type of coverage look that Tyquan Thornton has thrived in this season. He ranks third in the NFL in separation percentage against man coverage, has a solid mark at the catch point and has a 2.0 yards per route average. Thornton also plays one of the most important roles in the league, making every target he sees extremely valuable from a distance standpoint.
With Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph both questionable and the Lions’ secondary already thin, a deep connection with Thornton would signal the Chiefs are firing on all cylinders — and taking advantage of Detroit’s defensive injuries.
SGP build: 37-1 on FanDuel
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