In the most efficient sports betting market, every move matters. NFL sides and totals attract tremendous liquidity, making them less volatile than their college football counterparts, but also more revealing. This article explains the key drivers of line movement and provides tools to help you distinguish overreactions from sharp, justified adjustments.
Injuries, weather conditions and public choices are just a few factors that can influence the numbers. But by spotting early signals – before prices become fully efficient – gambling advantages are reaped. Below, we discuss how notable market makers have changed since Sunday and what those moves could tell us.
Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets
Movement: Broncos -6.5 → -7
The Broncos opened as favorites and were quickly bet to -7, with some shops hitting -8 before settling on a consensus of -7. A few books still show 7.5 seconds and heavily squeezed 6.5 seconds. If the figure gets closer to a flat 6.5, this could be a strong buying point for Denver in London.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Indianapolis Colts
Movement: Foals -5 → -7
The Colts have steadily moved into 7-point favorites, with some books briefly reaching 7.5 – but not the main market makers. That said, 7.5s are still available, but probably won’t last long.
Play: Arizona +7.5 (-120 at Rivers)
Take advantage of what seems like an overreaction to last week’s misleading final score. Without Demercado’s late fumble on the goal line, this line probably wouldn’t have resulted in a touchdown.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Movement: Total 44.5 → 47.5
After both teams competed in shootouts last week, the total has steadily risen to 47.5 – not due to any single catalyst, but rather consistent support over time. There is little resistance to the rise, although 48 has yet to hit the books. The current market is split between 47 and 47.5, with a slight bias towards the higher figure.
Playing: Under 47.5 (-110 most books)
Both teams faced opponents last week who have a tendency to create inflated scoring environments, and that influence helps shape this number. This means there is some added value at the bottom. I expect this total to be closer to 47, if not slightly lower, by kickoff.
Tennessee Titans vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Movement: Titans +6 → +4.5
Both teams enter Week 6 at 1-4. After opening at 6 a.m., a public pick release on Monday raised the limit to 4.5. Tennessee’s first win over Arizona last week felt more reactionary than foundational, and this play feels more like fading Las Vegas than supporting Tennessee. Add in Pete Carroll’s comments about possibly benching Geno Smith in favor of Kenny Pickett – and you have a matchup ripe for an early Titans lead against a vulnerable Raiders offensive line.
Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Movement: Total 50 → 53
The total has quietly risen 3 points from the opener, reaching a high of 53.5 before some under-the-money brought it back down. There are still a few 52.5’s available. Unlike recent years, this Chiefs offense is playing faster (it ranks seventh in average remaining play clock) while Detroit continues to move the ball efficiently. That combination has made this Sunday Night Football clash the highest projected total of the week.
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