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Week 17 is almost complete and betting lines are now available for week 18. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) [Total: 43.5]
Best bet: Panthers +3
The NFC South comes down to this. Neither the Buccaneers nor the Panthers were able to secure a crucial win in Week 17, leaving this game to decide the division. (Another scenario, however, in which the Falcons win their final two games and force a three-way tie in the division, could put the Buccaneers-Panthers matchup in question.)
While the Panthers (+7) were somewhat expected to struggle against the NFC-leading Seahawks, the Buccaneers (-6) unexpectedly fell as road favorites in Miami. The latest result leaves some doubt as to whether Tampa Bay should make a full field goal with the division crown on the line.
The Panthers claimed the outright win just eight days ago as three-point home underdogs in the first matchup between these two teams, adding to the Buccaneers’ 0-8 record against the spread since early November.
Tampa Bay’s offensive effectiveness has declined over time, with the team settling in the bottom third of the league in yards per play (4.9) and turnovers (10) since Week 10. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has compromised the ball regularly this season, recording the second-most turnover-worthy plays (23) in the NFL. He added another three to his total against the Dolphins in Week 17.
Carolina’s ability to play teams closely generally depends on the ability to find takeaways. Since Week 12, the Panthers have forced 19.1% of opponents into a turnover, the highest rate in the NFL. Panthers cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson have combined for nine interceptions this season, the most by a cornerback tandem in the NFL. If Mayfield gets careless with the football, you can bet those two will take advantage.
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