Receive PFF+ with a 30% discount: Use promotional code HOLIDAY 30 to unlock the PFF Player Prop Tool, Premium Stats, fantasy dashboards, the PFF Mock Draft Simulator, industry-leading fantasy rankings and much more – everything you need to win your season.
Week 16 is almost complete and betting lines are now available for week 17. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans [Total: 39.5]
Best bet: Saints -2.5
The Saints have put their best foot forward heading into the 2025 campaign, having played five of their past six games, including a pair of outright wins as road underdogs. The team’s defense has set the tone, allowing an NFL-best -0.208 EPA per play since Week 10 and limiting opposing offenses to just 4.4 yards per play.
The Titans are coming off their most impressive performance of the year: a 27-point victory over the battered Chiefs. Still, Tennessee’s offense was modest from an efficiency standpoint, generating a positive EPA on 41.1% of plays (23rd highest in Week 16) and scoring on four of 10 drives. That group may have a harder time finding points against a stout Saints defense in Week 17.
On defense, Tennessee has a strong front seven, but is struggling at the back. Over the past three games, the Titans’ defense has ranked in the top three in limiting successful runs (21.9%), but in the bottom 10 in successful passes allowed (39.5%).
That could add to New Orleans’ strengths as freshman quarterback Tyler Shough continues to find his rhythm. During the Saints’ three-game win streak, Shough owns the sixth-highest PFF overall grade (86.2) among quarterbacks. His adjusted completion percentage of 90.6% on throws over the middle leads the NFL over that span. Meanwhile, the Titans’ defense has given up the fourth-highest passer rating (117.9) on mid-digit throws.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) @ Miami Dolphins [Total: 46.5]
Best bet: Dolphins +5.5
The Bengals defeated the Dolphins 45-21 in Week 16. However, a closer look shows that the game was a little closer than the final score shows. The Dolphins and Bengals averaged the same number of yards per play, and just a few bad turnovers by the Dolphins – namely a fumble and a tipped interception – turned the game on its head.
These turnovers are likely less sticky than the underlying numbers, which show Miami’s offense was able to move the ball. The Dolphins now play a Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom five of the NFL in yards per dropback, yards per attempt and passing EPA.
On the other hand, the Buccaneers continue to struggle offensively, with quarterback Baker Mayfield producing another negative EPA in Week 16. He’s now had just one positive EPA game since appearing to injure himself in Week 7.
Tampa Bay’s offense has been good from a season standpoint, but has been bottom since Week 7. The Buccaneers are priced nearly seven points better than Miami on a neutral court, which is just too much.
#NFL #Week #betting #early #bets #lines #move