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Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) [Total: 47]
Game overview
After a few instant classics during the regular season, the third Rams-Seahawks iteration is well worth the hype. The previous two matchups between these NFC West rivals took shape with noticeably different paces and different outcomes in each encounter.
The first match in week 11 was characterized by a methodical approach from both teams. Defensively, both teams flourished. Seattle delivered a powerful blow to a Rams offense firing on all cylinders, limiting Sean McVay’s offense to its lowest EPA per game performance of the year. On the other end, the Rams forced Sam Darnold into four interceptions. Seattle was still in it until the end, but ultimately fell short on a missed 61-yard field goal attempt.
In an opposite direction, the Week 16 matchup was a high-octane offensive battle of wits. The Rams came out firing. The PFF MVP, Matthew Stafford, and the PFF Offensive Player of the Year, Puka Nacua, combined for a monumental day and pushed the Seahawks to the brink. However, Seattle managed to land blows everywhere. Thanks to a late punt return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed, as well as an odd two-point conversion, the Seahawks managed to force overtime and win a close game.
This is important, not only as a recap of the previous two battles between two of the NFL’s best, but also to illustrate the fact that even with both games featuring tight spreads, the team that won was unable to cover.
While a two-match example is limited, it illustrates a wide range of possible outcomes for this fight. In a more concrete example across the season, we can identify a few key factors to pay attention to, mainly focusing on an aggressive Seahawks defense and an explosive Rams offense.
Mike Macdonald’s defense was on edge for most of the year after leading the NFL in EPA per play allowed during the regular season. That was on full display when Seattle dismantled a strong 49ers offense in the divisional round.
On the other hand, Sean McVay’s offense is considered the pace car for offensive efficiency this year, with the highest EPA per play rating during the regular season. Where this gets complicated is looking at the Rams’ offensive production during the postseason.
As I mentioned in my early look at the conference championship betting odds, the Rams rank 10th among the 14 playoff teams in offensive success rate (31.8%), with late scores needed to secure the win. Neither the Panthers nor the Bears’ defense was in the bottom half of the NFL in most defensive metrics, casting some doubt on Los Angeles’ recent effectiveness.
Offensive success rate (postseason)
The other side of the ball is also not without questions for both teams.
Starting with the Seahawks offense, the loss of running back Zach Charbonnet – who suffered a significant knee injury in the divisional round – is a devastating blow to an offense that posted the second-highest run-play percentage during the regular season. Charbonnet played a key role in Seattle’s two-headed backfield monster, posting the second-highest PFF rushing grade in the NFL this season. Kenneth Walker III will now have to carry the burden alone. Fortunately, Walker’s rating profile isn’t far behind that of his backfield buddy, with each of them posting a PFF grade above 90.0.
Top RBs by PFF Rushing Grade (Regular Season)
That development could lead to the Seahawks taking a more pass-heavy approach in this matchup, as they did in the previous matchups against the Rams. However, injury trends have also affected Seattle up front, with three offensive tackles in danger of missing this game, most notably starting left tackle Charles Cross.
Regardless of who starts on the left side for Seattle, they will have the difficult task of slowing down explosive Rams edge rusher Jared Verse. Although Verse has yet to record a sack this postseason, he has come close, with five quarterback hits in two games. That appears to be a place where the market has mispriced props, creating expected value opportunities around his bag production.
Jared Verse Sack Prop Odds (DraftKings)
| Prop | Chances |
| More than 0.25 bags | +140 |
| 1+ bags | +184 |
| 2+ pockets | +1000 |
The Rams were also prone to allowing passing production to the back end. Since Week 13, the team’s defense ranks below league average in yards per attempt (18th), passer rating allowed (19th) and percentage of passes for 15 or more yards (19th).
Overall, that gives us a wide range of possible outcomes for a matchup between two of the NFL’s best.
TE Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams: 2.5+ receptions (-130)
Tyler Higbee’s return to the lineup in Week 18 would spell the end of Parkinson’s relevance. While the Rams are known for their high 13-man roster (three tight end sets), Parkinson is clearly the guy head coach Sean McVay wants to play. He leads Rams tight ends in targets (11) and routes (47) this postseason, and he profiles as a strong volume option in this matchup.
Rams TE receives stats (postseason)
Although Parkinson only managed a pair of receptions in each of the regular season matchups with the Seahawks, his opportunity to excel in this game remains given Seattle’s tendency to route targets to tight ends and running backs. The Seahawks allowed the second-most targets and fifth-most receptions in tight ends this season.
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