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Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos (-1) [Total: 45.5]
Game overview
The Bills came away upset at the No. 3 seed Jacksonville Jaguars on wild-card weekend, earning their first road playoff victory in two decades. Fueled by a gritty performance from Josh Allen, who posted a career-best PFF grade of 93.7, the Bills traded blows late, needing two touchdowns to regain the lead. Meanwhile, head coach Sean McDermott’s defense used masterful coverage disguises to keep Trevor Lawrence out of step and force the game-deciding interception.
However, injuries have increased for Buffalo, with two more receivers dealing with season-ending knee injuries. Allen (foot, knee, finger) landed countless hits of his own that would have knocked down lesser quarterbacks. While injuries are no strangers this time of year, the uncertainty surrounding Allen’s health has shifted the Bills’ line as road favorites from 1.5 points at the opener to now being underdogs by a slim margin.
The Bills enter a hostile playoff environment in Denver against a Broncos team looking to return the favor for their 2024 postseason exit at the hands of Buffalo.
This game marks the first time the Broncos have hosted a postseason game in a decade. The last time the Mile High City hosted a playoff game, the Broncos were running as a No. 1 seed and marched to a Super Bowl victory after a superior defensive performance. Denver is in a similar situation, boasting a defense that leads the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.5) and successful play rate allowed (30.1%).
Best Bet: RB Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos: Over 16.5 rushing yards (-110)
Since returning to the lineup, Jaleel McLaughlin has performed well as the backup behind RJ Harvey. While he has seen just over 21% of the backfield volume in that span (5.1 carries per game), he has proven to be a very efficient runner. His 5.2 yards per carry ranks in the top 10 among backs with at least 25 carries since Week 11, allowing him to surpass that mark in six of his past seven games.
The Bills’ struggles in tackling the run defense have prompted opponents to attack them on the ground. Their 74 missed tackles versus run ranks in the bottom five in the NFL this season. McLaughlin is forcing missed tackles at an exceptionally high rate and ranks second among all running backs with at least 25 carries in missed tackles per attempt (0.33). The Broncos running back should have opportunities to find extra yardage.
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