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Wildcard weekend is almost complete and betting lines are now available for the Divisional Round. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-7) [Total: 46.5]
Best bet: under 46.5
The two previous games between these NFC West rivals combined for 46 points. Their most recent matchup in Week 18 ended in a 13-3 win for the Seahawks, courtesy of a masterful performance from Mike Macdonald’s defense, holding the 49ers to their lowest EPA per play (-0.410) performance of the year. In those two matchups, Kyle Shanahan’s offense had significant trouble finding production, allowing just 4.9 yards per play and a 10.5% touchdown drive rate.
Seattle, the NFL’s top-ranked defense in EPA per play allowed during the regular season, will look to replicate that Week 18 performance. It starts with limiting the 49ers’ early success and forcing third-and-long situations, which the Seahawks thrive in, having allowed the lowest third-down conversion rate (32.9%) to opposing offenses this season.
In that previous game, the 49ers’ success rate on first and second downs dropped by more than 10 percentage points from their season average, and they converted only two of their 11 chances on third and fourth downs.
That’s all without mentioning that San Francisco will have to compete without the NFL’s highest-rated tight end, George Kittle (90.6 PFF overall grade), who tore his Achilles tendon in the wild-card round. The loss of Kittle leaves the 49ers with not only a dynamic pass catcher, but also an impact run blocker who lifts the entire unit.
The 49ers rushing splits | 2025 NFL season
| EPA/Rush | Yards per carry | |
| With Kittel | 0.034 | 4.0 |
| Without Kittel | -0.123 | 3.3 |
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