It’s divorce season in college basketball. Pretender or contender status will be earned this weekend, with numerous titans going head-to-head in matchups that could change the calculus on Selection Sunday in a major way.
Friday is the Michigan-Michigan State rivalry features two teams on pace for the top three seeds. Sunday’s battle between Illinois and Nebraska features two teams looking for a potential No. 1 seed. Oh, and Sunday’s matchup between Florida and Alabama will go a long way toward determining who the cream of the crop is in the SEC, and the chance to earn a top-four spot and wear home uniforms for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
Let’s take a look at this weekend’s biggest storylines, the braces version.
See the full field of 68 on the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Can anyone else join the Big 12’s ‘Stellar Six’?
Arizona, Iowa State, Houston, BYU, Kansas and Texas Tech will make the Big Dance unless something catastrophic happens later. All Big 12 titans are aiming for a top-five finish. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that ninth-seeded UCF is the only other Big 12 team in the field of 68 today. The Knights achieved an 11-1 record outside the conference, but they have predictably shown some more cracks in the armor in Big 12 play, suffering losses to Oklahoma State, Arizona State and Iowa State. The next ten days will be illuminating for UCF’s resume.
Saturday’s home test against Texas Tech is a war. Good luck and best wishes to beat Houston on the road on Wednesday. Oh, and then there’s a road trip to Cincinnati on the agenda next Sunday. Win two of three and UCFs on solid ground for an at-large berth. Losing a few could help the Big 12 undermine the reality that only six of the 16 teams in the league are NCAA Tournament caliber.
The top of the Big 12 is the best in America, but getting 38% of teams into the Big Dance would be the lowest percentage for the league since 2007.
Road warriors?
Road wins are like gold for Wins Above Bubble (WAB), a sophomore metric that the NCAA Tournament Seeding Committee uses to weigh resumes against what the average bubble team would do with the same roster. The margin of victory is not relevant to WAB, but Where you win is critical. The most impressive win so far, for WAB purposes, this year is Wisconsin going into Ann Arbor and knocking off Michigan. The list of WAB’s most notable wins is littered with victories on neutral ground or outright road victories.
That raises the stakes for teams currently close to the bubble.
Indiana is currently ranked No. 10, but can significantly improve its resume if it can beat UCLA on the road on Saturday. Knocking off the Bruins would give IU +0.70 WAB, equal to the figure it earned for beating Purdue at home this week.
Ohio State is in a similar boat. The Buckeyes are currently the No. 10 seed. They don’t have much wiggle room, but a win over Wisconsin would give OSU about +0.72 WAB. That would be the best win of the season for Jake Diebler’s group and catapult Ohio State about 10 spots higher in WAB from 43rd to near top-30 status. According to CBS Sports’ algorithm, a loss would take Ohio State out of the projected tournament picture.
Road victories are a salve for an instant escape from the falling knife that is the bubble.
Road games for Texas (at Oklahoma), Kentucky (at Arkansas), SMU (at Louisville) and San Diego State (at Utah State) will also be notable in the hunt for at-large bids. The Longhorns are among CBS Sports’ first four teams out of the field and San Diego State, a current No. 11 seed, is not far ahead in the first four.
#NCAA #Tournament #Bracketology #Bubble #watch #seed #lines #monitor #weekend