Addressing a packed room with a noticeable rush of first-time attendees, she urged investors to balance excitement with discipline as the commodity bull market accelerates.
Lara framed her speech around the advice she would give her daughter, based on the hard-earned lessons of more than a decade in the resources sector, including surviving long periods of disappointment before a surge.
“What we are experiencing this year is not normal,” she said. “Normally we’re not this fat, happy and cheerful. This is completely outside of what the past few years have been.”
Lara, often called the “uranium girl” due to her early condemnation during the sector’s 2021 to 2022 rally, drew parallels between uranium’s recent run and current moves in the gold and silver markets.
Prices, she warned, are rising so quickly that even seasoned investors are feeling uneasy.
“The price is moving too fast,” she said, noting that her presentation charts were outdated almost as soon as they were created. “That’s how fast this market moves.”
During the conference, which ran from January 25 to 26, gold exceeded $5,000 per ounce, while silver reached triple digits and remained even higher as the week progressed. Ultimately, these high levels proved to be as unsustainable as Lara expected – on Monday (February 2), gold was around $4,600, while silver was at $79.
What phase is the market in?
While some investors see parabolic prices as a signal to get out of the market completely, Lara warned against all-or-nothing thinking. Instead, she emphasized understanding where the market is within the broader arc of a bull cycle.
Referring to Doug Casey’s framework, she outlined three phases: the stealth phase, the wall of worry, and the mania.
According to her, the current market sits uncomfortably between the last two.
“Some people think we’re already confused because of the price,” Lara said. “I don’t think we’re quite there yet.”
She pointed to lagging indicators, including moderate valuations on the TSX Venture Exchange and conservative assumptions in mining feasibility studies, as signs the cycle still has room.
That said, Lara recognized the risks of complacency.
She told stories of investors who sat in the bull markets for too long, only to find “no bids” when they tried to get out. Her solution: gradual repositioning. “Don’t wait too long,” she said. “Slowly begin to leave your positions.”
For her own portfolio – and hypothetically for her daughter’s – Lara prefers to sell into third countries rather than take dramatic steps. Trimming positions can relieve pressure without sacrificing further top exposure. If it’s fully exciting, she warned, you risk missing the payout that investors have waited years for.
Equally important is what happens after the sale. Lara admitted that owning large amounts of cash is not suitable for every personality, especially active speculators.
To impose discipline, she has diverted some of the profits to dividend-paying oil stocks that are kept in a separate account. “You get paid to wait,” she said, calling oil historically cheap by several measures.
In addition to precious metals, Lara highlighted emerging areas of interest among experienced investors.
Copper is gaining attention and will likely receive even more attention if prices remain stable. Nickel continues to be overlooked, while oil continues to offer a combination of value and income that stands in stark contrast to the volatility of young miners.
Ultimately, Lara viewed successful investing not only as a psychological exercise, but also as an analytical exercise.
“Doing this right is the result of greed and fear,” she said. “In a bear market you have to be greedy. In a bull market you have to be somewhat fearful.”
Her closing message for newcomers and long-time investors: get involved, but don’t lose perspective. Bull markets reward patience and punish excess.
“We’re all salespeople, myself included,” Lara reminded the audience. “So don’t believe everything you hear.”
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Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, have no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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