US President Donald Trump and his NATO -opposite hits will collect on Tuesday for a top that could unite the largest security organization in the world around a new promise of defense expenditure or division between the 32 allies.
Only a week ago it seemed rosy. NATO-Secretary General Mark Rutte was optimistically European members and Canada would commit to investing at least as much of their economic growth on defense as the United States first.
Then Spain rejected the new NATO target for each country to spend 5% of its gross domestic product on defense needs, and called it ‘unreasonable’. Trump is also on that figure. The Alliance works on a consensus that requires the support of all 32 members.
The next day, Trump said that the US should not respect the goal.
“I don’t think we should, but I think they should,” he said. Trump lashed out at Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government and said: “NATO will be confronted with Spain. Spain has been a very low payer.” He also criticized Canada as ‘a low payer’.
Spain was the lowest spender in the Alliance last year and led less than 2% of GDP on Defense expenditure, while according to NATO figures, Canada ran out 1.45%.
Then Trump ordered the bombing of nuclear installations in Iran. In 2003, the war-led war on Iraq deeply divided NATO, while France and Germany led opposition against the attack, while Great Britain and Spain joined the coalition.
European allies and Canada also want Ukraine to be at the top of the top agenda, but they are on their guard that Trump may not want President Volodyymyr Zenskyy to steal the spotlight.
A short top, decades of mutual safety
The two -day top in The Hague comprises an informal dinner and a work session on Wednesday morning on Tuesday. A very short top statement has been drawn up to ensure that the meeting is not derailed by fighting about details and formulation.
Indeed, a lot about this NATO top is short, although ripples can be felt for years.
Founded in 1949, the North Atlantic Convention Organization was formed by 12 countries to prevent the Soviet Union’s Soviet in Europe during the Cold War, in particular through a strong American presence on the continent.
Dealing with Moscow is in his DNA. Keeping peace outside the Euro-Atlantic area is not.
NATO’s ranks have grown to 32 countries since the Washington treaty was signed 75 years ago. Sweden joined last year, worried by an increasingly aggressive Russia.
NATO’s collective security guarantee – Article 5 of the Convention – supports its credibility.
It is a political dedication of all countries to help with every member whose sovereignty or territory can be attacked. Trump has suggested that he is committed to that promise, but he also sowed doubts about his intentions. He said that the US is planning to remain members of the Alliance.
A burger runs NATO, but the US and its military power have power
The United States are the most powerful member of NATO. It spends much more on the defense than any other ally and weighs his partners a lot against military muscles. Washington traditionally driven the agenda, but is a step back under Trump.
The American nuclear arsenal offers strategic deterrence against potential opponents.
The daily work of NATO is led by Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister.
As his best civil officer, he is chairman of almost weekly meetings of ambassadors in the North Atlantic Council at the headquarters of Brussels. He is chairman of other “NACs” at ministerial and leader level. Rutte runs the NATO headquarters, tries to promote the consensus and speak on behalf of all members.
The NATO military headquarters is located in the neighborhood in Mons, Belgium. It is always run by a top -american officer.
The role of Ukraine on top is unclear
Now that Trump is demanding greater defense issues, it is unclear what role Ukraine will play at the top. Zenskyy is invited, but it is unclear whether he will have a place on NATO’s table, although he can participate in Tuesday’s dinner. The Russian war in Ukraine usually dominates such meetings.
NATO itself does not monit Ukraine in general. As an organization, it does not have weapons of any kind. Together it only offers non-deadly support fuel, combat rations, medical supplies, body trusses and equipment to prevent drones or mines.
But individual members send poor people. European allies offered 60% of the military support that Ukraine received in 2024. NATO coordinates those arms deliveries via a hub on the Polish border and helps organize training for Ukrainian troops.
Planning NATO’s junk
An important part of the obligation for allies to defend each other is to scare Russia or another opponent to attack in the first place. Finland and Sweden recently reached NATO because of this concern.
According to NATO’s new military plans, 300,000 soldiers would be deployed within 30 days to combat an attack, whether on land, at sea, through the air or in Cyberspace. But experts doubt whether the Allies can collect the troop figures.
It is not just about troops and equipment numbers. An opponent would be less likely to challenge NATO if it thought that the Allies would use the forces it arranges. Trump’s threats against our allies – including the imposition of rates on them – have weakened that deterrence.
The US bears the largest military burden
Due to the high American defense expenditure for many years, the American armed forces have more staff and superior weapons, but also important transport and logistics assets.
However, other allies are starting to spend more. After years of cutbacks, NATO members are committed to increasing their national defense budgets in 2014, when Russia illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula of Ukraine.
After the full invasion of Russia in Ukraine in 2022, NATO allies came in to make 2% of GDP the minimum spending level. Last year, 22 countries were expected to hit that target, from just three decade ago.
In The Hague it was expected that the Allies would increase the Ante to 3.5%, plus another 1.5% for things such as improving roads, bridges, ports and airports or preparing societies to tackle future conflicts. Whether they remain an open question.
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