Moderna shares a 2% increase as its skin cancer vaccine shows sustained benefit after five years

Moderna and Merck said Tuesday that their experimental, personalized vaccine continued to reduce the risk of death or recurrence of the most deadly skin cancer, five years after treatment started.In a mid-stage study of high-risk melanoma patients who had undergone surgery, the vaccine in combination with Merck’s Keytruda reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% after five years, consistent with three-year follow-up data in 2023.

The data points to early success for Moderna as it looks to turn its mRNA platform into a broader, sustainable franchise and close the revenue gap created by waning COVID-19 demand.“If Moderna can reproduce this 49% risk reduction in the much larger Phase 3 trial, it bodes well not only for commercialization in melanoma, but also for the prospects for the combination in other indications, such as kidney, bladder and lung cancer,” said Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen.

Shares of Moderna rose 2% amid weak broader markets.

The vaccine, intismeran autogenous, uses a patient’s tumor-specific genetic signature to train the immune system to recognize and attack cancer cells.

The data supports continued efficacy over many years, UBS analyst Michael Yee said, adding that this needs to be confirmed in the late-stage study. Yeee expects that late-phase data will be available later this year based on the number of events and study progress.

The vaccine’s price would be comparable to Keytruda, around $200,000, and could reach peak sales of several billion dollars for melanoma alone, Jefferies analysts estimate.

According to the American Cancer Society, approximately 112,000 people in the U.S. are expected to be diagnosed with melanoma by 2026.