Model portfolio improvements update –

I created the Model Portfolio to turn the complex theories on this blog into a tangible, easy-to-follow roadmap. It is the definitive answer to the “So, what should I do now?” dilemma.

But I don’t just talk the talk, I walk the walk. Mine private portfolio follows exactly the same DNA as the model, just with a few ‘real’ upgrades. I add layers of redundancy to protect against model risk and keep an eye on the cutting-edge strategies, the kind of sophisticated tools that are only now trickling into retail investors, to give my personal capital an extra edge.

You can find previous posts on this topic here and here.

Stocks

Managing equity exposure through bond-linked instruments such as the NTS* family or RSSB turned out to be more rigid than I would like. I’ve considered Amundi’s 2x MSCI World ETF, but until all-in costs are transparent, it’s a pass. Instead, I switched to SPUU (a 2x S&P 500 ETF), effectively reducing my NTSX stake to zero.

EDIT: Since they reported it to me, my exposure to NTSX was already quite small because RSST and GDE also bet US stocks. I have less than 3% allocated to SPUU 😉

Then there is administrative friction news: IBKR flagged NTSE for exposure to “blacklisted” countries, putting me in a sales-only pattern. Still waiting for a solution, but for now the door is closed.

The biggest shift, however, is ORR. After a year of hearing David Orr’s story on the podcast circuit, I was sold. At the time I didn’t know he had an ETF; to me he was just another uninvestable hedge fund manager. Later that year I discovered the ETF… but as it skyrocketed, I had that familiar behavioral feeling, the fear of buying the top and looking like a loser. I am currently at half of my target allocation.

Orr’s strategy is elegantly contrarian (in the POV mania of retail investors), an unconventional long/short manager: he shorts the yield-trap complex (YieldMax, covered calls, etc.). He’s actually reaping the benefits that yield-starved retail investors are, thank goodness, willing to leave on the table in exchange for a “stable” check. Something I would do myself if I could borrow those ETFs cheaply.

Raw materials

In 2025, WisdomTree launched WTIP, a multi-asset ETF designed to act as a comprehensive hedge against both expected and unexpected inflation.

Rather than choosing just one asset class, WTIP ‘stacks’ several inflation-sensitive exposures. For every $100 invested, the fund aims to provide approximately $195 in total market exposure.

This is how the portfolio is structured:

• Fixed income: Approximately 85% of the fund is invested in TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). These provide basic protection against ‘expected’ inflation because their principal and interest payments are adjusted based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
• Raw materials: The fund has exposure (approximately 95%) to a diversified basket of commodity futures.
  • Trend following: Approximately 80% of this portfolio is managed using a long/short momentum signal, meaning the fund can benefit from both rising and falling commodity trends.
  • Precious metals: A fixed 15% of this cover is intended for long-only positions in gold and silver (7.5% each).
• Digital assets: The fund can allocate up to 10% of its assets to Bitcoin (via ETPs or futures).

What convinced me is the stacking component. I’m not a fan of TIPS as a long-term allocation, but I’ve wanted to diversify COM’s strategy since… I started building my portfolio. HARD could have been an option, but ‘made by Simplify’ and ‘unlevered’ stopped me.

WTIP’s capital efficiency is hard to beat:

Wear

I wrote about RSSY here: On paper, the strategy seemed like pure magic. It promised that rare combination of returns and diversification that every investor craves. But the lived experience was the opposite. In the first nine months the carry component decreased by 17%. The Return Stacking team held a webinar to explain that while the loss was exceptional, it was still statistically ‘possible’. I usually wait a year before purchasing new products, but the opportunity felt too good to pass up. Since I bought it it has lost another 10% (again just the carry component).

What’s confusing is the performance hole. The team employs a similar strategy in a mutual fund wrapper (twice the target volatility and using a broader universe of illiquid instruments) that has behaved… differently. Different and better! That’s my only real benchmark, and the differences are frustrating.

Meanwhile, UEQC is down only slightly, although the strategy is a completely different beast. We are now reaching the maximum drawdowns proposed in the original white papers, even though those papers did not take into account committee friction and slippage. Launching a strategy that thrives on stable markets just before the “Trump 2.0” era was a masterclass in bad timing… I guess? Ah no, the investment fund…

I’m watching 2026 unfold for this carry strategy. It comes in such an efficient and unique package that it would be difficult to sell it. As they say, there’s a big difference between seeing a 30% drawdown in a backtest and seeing it in your investment account. But honestly? It doesn’t hurt that much. That’s the beauty of a diversified portfolio; when every strategy is right-sized, no single line item can ruin your day. But at some point the math has to work, otherwise I have to pull the plug.

Alternative risk premiums

I eventually managed to switch from FLSP to an AQR investment fund should be the UCITS version of QMNIX. The idea and rationale behind the investment are the same, the major difference is that the strategy is now managed by experts and executed at a higher target volume.

I also removed SVIX from the portfolio because I have a specific strategy around it.

The wallet

The gross allocations have shifted from:

• shares: 53% (5% is SVOL, the rest is divided into 60% US, 30% DMs, 10% EM)
• FLSP: 5%
• bonds: 36% (Intermediate Treasuries only)
• Trend: 26% (equal distribution of DBMF, KMLM and RSST)
• Resources: 10% (a 60/40 split of gold via GDE and COM)
• Tail risk: 10% (2.5% TAIL, 2.5% CAOS, 5% BTAL)
• KRBN: 2% (the fun money part)

Unpleasant:

• shares: 53% (5% is ORR, the rest is divided into 60% US, 30% DMs, 10% EM)
• QMNIX: 5%
• bonds: 32% (Intermediate Treasuries and IL bonds from WTIP)
• Trend: 26% (equal distribution of DBMF, KMLM and RSST)
• Commodities: 17% (COM, GDE, WTIP)
• Tail risk: 10% (2.5% TAIL, 2.5% CAOS, 5% BTAL)
• Wear: 5%
• KRBN: 2%

I managed to increase leverage by using more efficient instruments and reducing bond allocation (which I hope to reduce even further).

I have a lot of new ETFs on the radar; the most relevant are MATE, ILS/CATB, HFMF, FOXY and ASGM.

What I’m reading now:

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