We’ve made it through the group stages of the Olympic men’s hockey tournament and the four teams heading into the quarterfinals have been announced: Canada, USA, Slovakia and Finland.
On Wednesday we will see eight teams play to secure their place in the quarter-finals. Switzerland plays Italy, Germany against France, Czech Republic against Denmark and Sweden against Latvia.
Now that all the matchups are set, here are my predictions for each game and how I think the winner will fare in their quarterfinal matchup.
Switzerland (5) vs Italy (12)
Puck drop: 6:10am EST
Switzerland have looked very solid throughout the tournament in a tough group. They beat France handily and then lost to Canada, where their star, Kevin Fiala, suffered a serious injury ending his tournament, as well as his 2025-2026 regular season. They followed up that disappointing game against Canada with a solid overtime win over the Czech Republic.
Italy were one of the surprises of the tournament, even though they didn’t win a match. Their goalkeepers, Damian Clara and Davide Fadani, stood out throughout the tournament and kept this team in the game.
Related: 5 lessons from Sweden’s 5-2 win over Italy
Italy were expected to be crushed in all three of their games, and they were against Finland, but they played tight games with Sweden and Slovakia. While it was a fun story, I think their tournament ends here.
Switzerland will comfortably beat Italy and play Finland in the quarter-finals.
Germany (6) vs France (11)
Puck drop: 6:10am EST
For me, Germany is one of the most disappointing teams in this tournament. They are led by NHL stars like Leon Draisaitl, Tim Stutzle and Moritz Seider. They also have other solid NHLers in JJ Peterka and Philipp Grubauer, who have been fantastic for the Seattle Kraken this season.
They defeated Denmark in their opening match, but then lost a one-goal match to Latvia and were eliminated by Team USA. The loss to the US was expected, but Latvia was a game I thought they should have won. Before the tournament, I thought they would get two wins in their three group stage matches.
France were probably the most disappointing team in the tournament. The highlight for the French so far is probably when they held a 3-2 lead over the Czech Republic for just under 10 minutes before the Czech Republic stormed back to win 6-3.
They were a team I expected to get crushed in their three games, and they did. They exit the group stage with a minus 15 goal difference, including a 10-2 loss to Canada.
Germany will win this match and book their ticket to the quarter-finals. Like Italy, I think France is simply outmatched compared to Germany.
While the Germans don’t quite have the depth to put up big fights against teams like Canada and the US, their top talent should be enough to beat France.
Germany was actually lucky because the way the seeding went, I think they have the easiest quarter-finals. They play against Slovakia, who have been good this tournament and are one of the biggest surprises.
Czech Republic (8) vs Denmark (9)
Puck drop: 10:40 am
The Czech Republic was probably the most disappointing team in the tournament. They were crushed by Canada, won a game against France, which they even trailed at one point after going up 2-0, and lost in extra time to Switzerland.
Their top players haven’t been impressive, but all the talent is still there. Pavel Zacha’s absence due to injury hurt their depth in the middle, and I think we’re seeing the effects now.
Denmark was a team with not many expectations heading into the tournament. They have goaltending with Frederik Andersen and some names in the forward group with Nikolaj Ehlers and Oliver Bjorkstrand, but beyond that there aren’t many threats to this team.
What’s interesting is that they haven’t actually had many contributions from their NHLers. Only one of their eight goals in the three games against Germany, USA and Latvia came from their NHL players. Their leading goalscorer is Nick Olesen, who has scored three goals. He is 30 years old and currently plays for Ceske Budejovice HC in the Czech league.
Denmark’s victory over Latvia on the final day of the group stage allowed Denmark to avoid Sweden in the qualifying round and forced Latvia to play them.
While Denmark’s win was a pleasant surprise for them, I think the Czech Republic will find a way to get out of the rut and beat Denmark to earn a rematch against Canada in the quarterfinals.
As I said before, the Czech Republic’s top brass haven’t been good enough, but I’m not giving up on them yet. Being able to throw away players like David Pastrnak, Tomas Hertl and Martin Necas is something Denmark will not be able to match.
Another thing I would be afraid of in a one-game elimination against the Czech Republic is if Lukas Dostal can steal the game for the Czech Republic. I don’t expect him to have to steal this game if they want to win, but he is an X-factor in every game the Czech Republic plays.
Sweden (7) vs Latvia (10)
Puck drop: 3:10 PM EST
I would have assumed that Sweden would have won their group, but here they are not even able to take second place in Group B.
Many, including myself, have been head coach Sam Hallam all over Sweden because of the way he uses his squad. One of the most baffling decisions to me is the lack of ice time we’ve seen Filip Forsberg get. Through three games, he has only gotten 10:30 of ice time, which is less than Pontus Holmberg.
Now, ahead of the match against Latvia, Jesper Bratt is listed as the thirteenth forward for some reason. While teams like the US and Canada can combine more options with the 13th forward, it seems like Sweden has really struggled to find ice time for their extra forward.
In addition to poor coaching, we have seen Filip Gustavsson struggle in the tournament. Against Italy he allowed two brutal goals and against Finland he was not sharp. Jacob Markstrom then got the start in the second half of the Finland-Slovakia back-to-back.
Latvia, on the other hand, always seems to perform better than the sum of its parts. They lost to the United States in a close match until the United States pulled away in the second half of the second period and then scored a good victory over Germany. I thought they would beat Denmark, but because of their mistake they now have to play Sweden instead of the Czech Republic.
Alberts Smits is putting together good tape to increase his draft stock at the 2026 NHL Draft, where he expected to be a top 10 pick. They have a few NHLers, but their headliners are likely their goaltending tandem, Arturs Silovs and Elvis Merzlikins.
It will be interesting to see who gets the start against Sweden, but I don’t think Latvia will win either way. Sweden is only a few miles better than Latvia from top to bottom, and regardless of their questionable coaching or struggling goaltending, we’ll see them play Team USA in the quarterfinals.
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