MCX Gold price falls Rs 1,140 per day. Has the shine of the safe haven begun to fade?

Gold prices fell on Wednesday, December 31, with MCX gold futures falling by Rs 1,140 or 0.8% from their previous close of Rs 1,36,666 to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,35,526. The decline followed a period of sharp volatility caused by heightened geopolitical tensions, which had pushed prices up significantly earlier this week.On the COMEX, gold futures traded between $4,350 and $4,360 an ounce, down slightly from Tuesday’s close of around $4,386.

Gold and silver rebounded strongly from intraday lows on Tuesday due to renewed demand for safe havens. The sentiment was driven by setbacks in the Russia-Ukraine peace process, U.S. attacks on Venezuelan shipyards and Chinese naval exercises amid rising friction between the U.S. and Taiwan.However, Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, warned that the rally was capped after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting showed expectations of aggressive rate cuts in 2026 had waned.

With global uncertainties and monetary policy expectations still evolving, the precious metals market remains finely balanced heading into the new year. For now, price action may remain limited, with traders keeping a close eye on any shift in the geopolitical and central bank narratives.

The technical data still points to bullishness

According to Enrich Money CEO Ponmudi R, prices continue to respect the long-term trendline with immediate support around the 20-day EMA at $4,351. While near-term price action remains under pressure, the broader structure is still considered bullish. A sustained break above $4,400 could open the door to the $4,500 level, he added, although downside support remains firm at $4,300 to $4,250.

On the domestic front, MCX gold futures consolidated between Rs 1,35,500 and Rs 1,35,700.

Enrich Money highlighted that a move back above Rs 1,36,500 could revive momentum towards Rs 1,38,000 to Rs 1,40,000, with strong support from Rs 1,34,000 to Rs 1,33,000. The tech sector continues to favor buy-on-dip strategies, although short-term moves remain sensitive to global developments.

Gold outlook for 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, analysts maintain a constructive view on the yellow metal.

Mahendra Luniya, chairman of Vighnaharta Gold, added that gold could test $4,900 by 2026 with a potential move towards $5,200, and INR prices could range between Rs 1.78 lakh and Rs 1.82 lakh per 10 grams. In the long term, he predicted Rs 3.42 lakh per 10 grams by 2030.

Also read: Silver price crashes by Rs 15,000 on the last trading day of 2025. What should traders do?

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)