There’s a thing that happens to fantasy baseball players (<–my mother's term). They get very excited when a prospect is called up. A rookie gets goosebumps through his chest. Prospects with pedigree who have never had a moment of MLB play? That's the new kid on the block that people love. Show me a guy with 60 degree speed and 60 degree power who has never left his MLB field? Let me show you a guy that fantasy baseball players want to metaphorically marry. Well, maybe a little literally. There's nothing like this. Then, one play after they're drafted, they go 0-on-3 with a walk, and it becomes, "Get the eff off my fantasy team! Seriously?! How did I ever like this guy? He's so bad! No, I'm serious now. Don't ever talk to me about that guy again, he sucks. Now, that other prospect, who's due to be drafted soon? Oh, Dad, loves him. I'm going to pick that guy up!" It's kind of funny, and don't change "rather" when you're talking to someone because he or she will think you're British and/or punch you. Both are equally bad: being hit or having people think you're British. So this happened Matt Shaw. In the minors in 2024, he went 21/31/.284 in 443 ABs and people lined up to grab him like he was a new bagel place that had just opened and was said to have the best bagels. Unfortunately, you get three bagels from Shaw and start watching the resurgence of Javier Baez. So, what can we expect from Matt Shaw for fantasy baseball in 2026 and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! I’m currently rolling out my 2026 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to appear next month. Anyway II, the Matt Shaw sleeper:
The first thing I do is see what a guy is expected to bat in the order. Matt Shaw is expected to finish ninth, and [holds nose] Smelly. Don’t like that at all. Last year, the nine-hole hitter averaged 65 runs and 59 RBIs in the majors. The two-hole hitter averaged 97 runs and 83 RBIs. Huge difference. Teams are not all the same. If the Dodgers’ nine-hole hitter is Andy Pages, I don’t think it’s great, but it’s a lot better than the Pirates’ nine-hole hitter. However, the Cubs lineup is solid. Maybe not the Dodgers, but definitely not the Pirates. So then I look at the likelihood of Matt Shaw staying in the nine hole. That’s where things get more optimistic. Is Michael Busch really a leadoff hitter? Lol, stop. Is Ian Happ a three-hole hitter? Durable, but also: Durable. Then it feels silly to move Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong into a hypothetical lineup so much, but who knows? Injuries happen and I wouldn’t be about to write a Matt Shaw sleeper here if I thought he was stuck in the nine hole indefinitely, but he’s more likely to be a bad drafter than most of the fantasy baseball sleepers I’m going to write. If the benefit wasn’t as glorious as I think, I wouldn’t bother with it.
As mentioned in the opening, he was a 60-level strength and speed guy, so let’s watch a few clips of that:
MAT SHAW FOR 3! pic.twitter.com/UGuJi03hQq
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 22, 2025
His hands are the sweet stuff. More sweets:
Matt Shaw hits his third home run since the All-Star break? pic.twitter.com/S5J2gSv5JP
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) July 23, 2025
That ball wasn’t supposed to come out, and yet we watch it. I pointed this out to you last year, and I’ll do it again for you:
Some guys’ stats are so undeniable; some guys are so close to the majors or have already debuted; some guys hit the ball 150 yards.
This goes on for a solid 12 pages from Google. Since I know you’re thirsty, now I’ll show you the real homer:
Top6 | TREE?
That’s a Shaw GRAND SLAM and the lead for the Terps
Terps 7, Iowa 6 pic.twitter.com/xSrsudEi9z
— Maryland Baseball (@TerpsBaseball) March 31, 2023
That’s it. It’s with a metal bat in a 30 MPH wind, and there’s no wild scream from the announcer indicating that Matt Shaw has hit the ball into orbit. 500-foot homer and that’s what it’s unofficially called by someone named Big Donkey on Twitter. The official Terps account, quoted above, doesn’t even mention the ball going 150 yards. I’m reluctant to discount anything about a donkey because A) We all love donkey teeth. B) Leaving an ass out of the equation makes you an asshole. C) There is no C. Anyway, this seems a bit like modern myth-making, he said alliteratively. It’s a modern Paul Bunyan story. Or similar to Pat Burrell’s exploits in college. Can we believe this is really a 500-foot blast from Matt Shaw? Don’t know. Does it matter? More difficult question to answer.
Here are a few more clips, less 150 meters long:
Matt Shaw shows off the speed?
His triple makes it 4-2 #Cubs! pic.twitter.com/NcbRRNFF64
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) March 8, 2024
And uno mas, so you can see him running even more:
.@Cubs Matt Shaw in the 2023 first round with a 2-run triple! pic.twitter.com/sjVTF8fFxL
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) February 27, 2024
There are a lot of clips of him. I will say this: the prospect community and Cubs fans already love Matt Shaw. Well, me too. He was hyped for a reason. He has insane strength and speed. Last year he went 13/17/.226. Bleh average, but it was with a .262 BABIP (unlucky) and a 21.5 K%, excellent for a rookie. Shaw is about to launch. I won’t project him for it, but his final minor league year of 21/31/.284 feels very doable in the majors. I honestly think this sleeper has the potential to be a 30/30/.280 hitter and a top 20 player. Crazy? Yeah, definitely, and I bet you expected that from Pete Crow-Armstrong last year. You know the future clearly. No? Oh, well, lucky you’re here, because so am I! For fantasy baseball in 2026, I’m giving Matt Shaw projections of 79/22/69/.266/26 in 517 ABs with a chance of much more.
#Matt #Shaw #Fantasy #Baseball #sleeper