Et now: looking at all these uncertainties, we have many worldwide factors that play, in our own country we have the earnings season that was not such a great set, at least the first half and now we have the inflation print, the wholesale price index, WPI prints that come in, all these lawyers are that the markets are resilient. What is your opinion on the market at the moment?
Sumit Bhatnagar:
The global economy continues to throw curveballs at us, and it would continue until the time that Donald Trump is in the office. So what we have to concentrate on is the domestic economy, and that is where our focus is. If you look at the domestic economy, we are doing reasonably well. The tax and monetary measures taken by the RBI and the central government must help improve your growth process in the second half. We expect all liquidity measures, the tariff reduction measures that the government has taken to play your economy in the next two to three months, and we should see a little improvement, both on the growth channel of GDP and at the company in the company in the second half. Regarding the numbers of this quarter, although they may be in general in accordance with the expectation, the most important collection meals for us is that the earnings downgrade cycle or the pace of the profit reduction is getting slower and probably we are in a soil district or perhaps the Q2 can be the bottom quarter for earning Downgrade in itself. With regard to the ratings, our markets are still reasonably appreciated, whether it is your head indices or if you compare it on the basis of yield gap or if you compare the premium that we have enjoyed compared to other emerging markets, which are broadly in line with the long -term averages. You are therefore in a situation where the ratings are reasonable and the profit process is set to improve.
Et now: You mentioned income. So, should we expect that the second half of the current financial year will be better than the first half and, more importantly, time, when the time of outbreak will be because we are very long in a consolidation range and one question that everyone will ask which way we will go and more important will this consolidation phase end soon?
Sumit Bhatnagar:
Just as the consolidation case concerns, or when the markets will break out, we are probably not the right people. What we believe is that investors have to look at the investment horizon in the longer term and continue to participate in the markets, because the Indian story remains robust. So yes, we also expect a little time correction on the market, but we don’t expect any big price corrections from here on the markets. And we certainly expect picking up in business income under the guidance of your consumption space, and also picked up in the Capex activity, which should lead to a little income that is collected under the guidance of sectors such as NBFC, Cement and FMCG.
Et now:
And while we are talking about the consumption theme, I would like to go a little further than. And now the next time from here, another six months will be the festival days at least until December or early January, at least for the Indian markets. We start on August 15, and then we will let all the festivals come to the new year. Given all these, there will be a consumption theme, consumption question, that will collect. Let’s say that the FMCG, Automobile, Travel and Tourism and Hotel Sectors. What is your opinion about that, and how do you see the consumption story for the second half?
Sumit Bhatnagar:
I would say that consumption looks good from at least one perspective of two to three years. One is that the impact of RBI restrictions on the loans has begun to illuminate in the short term. You should see a bit of a pick -up in credit growth or retailers that should support your consumption. Secondly, your reduction in income tax in the hands of people must flow and get a considerable lump, that should also support your consumption, as well as the decrease in interest rates and the liquidity available in the economy necessarily that should lower the loan costs and push the consumer to spend a little more. And if you push it further, your State Pay Commission and Central Pay Commissions will owe next year. So, an effective flow of money may be done in CY 27, but that should also significantly support your consumption. If you also look at the state of the government, essentially what happened was that the government was purely focused on Capex and had a little more charged with consumption. Thus, in the form of higher taxes on private individuals or the adjustment of tax rates on GST, who over the past two years has taken almost three to four Lakh crores from the hands of the consumer, we expect that this will relieve this in the future. So we expect that a bit of relaxing on GST will also support the future, so we expect all the second half of the festival, yes, it is good, but at an aggregated level also in the next three years, consumption should see a considerable traction.
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