For Mark Moss, the gains reflect a deeper collapse in confidence in sovereign currencies.
“The real driver is not inflation,” the investor and commentator emphasized during a fireside chat at the recent Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. “The real driving force is trust.”
Many investors remain focused on short-term price signals and conventional indicators, such as real interest rates, while overlooking the deeper forces shaping capital allocation. According to Moss, the current market situation favors long-term allocation. According to him, conviction – and not timing – should guide investment decisions.
“You can’t borrow someone else’s beliefs,” he said. “You have to start by learning to build your own statement, and then you have to learn to look for things that confirm or deny that statement.”
Precious metals continued the strong price increase that started last year.
Gold prices broke above $5,500 an ounce for the first time on Wednesday (Jan. 28), while silver broke through the triple-digit level last week and continued to rise above $119 an ounce.
These moves are taking place amid escalating geopolitical and policy uncertainty. However, Moss cautioned against focusing on the short-term drivers of gold and silver prices, instead pointing to what he described as a fundamental dilemma facing governments facing rising debt burdens – a dynamic he said is reshaping global capital flows.
Referring to comments by hedge fund founder Ray Dalio at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Moss described a “rock and a hard place” scenario. Governments are faced with the choice between allowing debt crises that pose the risk of defaults and asset collapse, or continuing to expand the money supply in ways that erode purchasing power.
“Either they have option one, the rock, which is a sovereign debt crisis, falling asset prices – that’s what everyone thinks. The markets are going to collapse. The value of my house, my pension value is going to collapse. But the problem with that is they lose everything. They’re going to be wiped out and there’s going to be massive civil unrest,” he said.
“And the difficult thing is that they can print the money. And so of course they will always choose to take the money with them.”
As a result, large institutional and sovereign investors face losses regardless of government default or inflation, prompting a revaluation of traditional reserves. Moss said gold has emerged as a response to that reassessment, alongside broader interest in commodities and crucial minerals. He further pointed to continued gold purchases by central banks as a signal that confidence in fiat currencies and the post-war financial order is weakening.
This is reported by the World Gold Councilcentral banks have been buying gold at record levels in recent years.
Moss cited Poland as a notable example, describing the country as a close U.S. ally that has nevertheless aggressively acquired gold. Other large entities are following the same strategy. Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, recently revealed that part of its long-term plan is to… stockpiling gold in a Swiss bunker.
Gold’s rally is based on strong multi-year progress. After starting around $2,640 in 2025, the price had risen to around $3,200 by April before trading within a narrow range over the summer.
Momentum returned in late August, pushing gold above $4,300 by mid-October. While the price briefly fell below $4,000 during a subsequent pullback, the retracement turned out to be shallower and shorter than many market watchers expected. Gold resumed its rise in mid-November and accelerated sharply towards the end of 2025.
Right now, the status quo favors precious metals.
Regardless, Moss returned to the importance of a long-term perspective, arguing that investors fixated on short-term price movements risk missing the broader shift underway as confidence dynamics change in the global economy.
“If you’re trying to understand why the gold price dropped from $5,000 to $4,800 today, I can’t really help you,” Moss said. “But we understand the direction that is coming.”
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Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, have no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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