Assuming the deal goes through, Naylor will become the first name in the 2025-26 free agent class to land a new contract just two weeks after the World Series ends. It’s a surprise to see a major free agent sign his next contract so quickly, even before the players who received qualifying offers have made their decisions. (Notably, Naylor was not eligible for a QO, as he was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Mariners during the season.)
MLB Trade Rumors ranked Naylor 12th on our list of the top 50 free agents this offseason, and the five-year term is in line with our expectation that Naylor would receive a five-year, $90 million deal. Naylor’s five-year contract also matches the longest free agent deal the Mariners have signed during Jerry Dipoto’s 10 years in charge of Seattle’s baseball operations. The M is inked Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115 million pact during the 2021-2022 offseason, and Ray’s contract and Yusei KikuchiThe four-year, $56 million deal in January 2019 was the only free agent deal of the Dipoto era to last even longer than two years.
There are several reasons behind the lack of major free agent strikes. The Mariners’ infamous 10-year, $240 million deal Robinson Canoe of December 2013 could have led to some organizational caution regarding blockbuster signings. Since John Stanton’s ownership group purchased the team in 2016, the M’s have finished a season with a top-10 payroll just once, and are only returning to the mid-range of spending league-wide. There is also “Trader Jerry’s” personal preference to build rosters through trades rather than free agents, as Dipoto is known to be very active in negotiating swaps. Players may have had reservations about joining a Mariners team that has made just two postseason appearances in the past 24 seasons, and hitters in particular weren’t exactly lining up to play in a notoriously pitcher-friendly environment.
With all this in mind, there was such a mutual interest between Naylor and the Mariners that it certainly seemed like the team was very willing to go beyond the usual free agent comfort zone. Dipoto openly told the media — including Darragh McDonald on the MLBTR Podcast in September — that re-signing Naylor was a priority for the organization, and Naylor himself was just as effusive about how much he loved playing in Seattle.
Considering how Naylor performed after arriving in the Pacific Northwest, it’s easy to see why both sides quickly came to a long-term deal. Naylor was already enjoying a strong season with the Diamondbacks, but when Arizona fell out of contention, the D’Backs dealt the slugger a week before the trade deadline, landing the rookie left-handed Brandyn Garcia and pitching prospect Ashton Izzi.
Naylor went on to hit .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 19 stolen bases (without a single steal) over 210 regular-season plate appearances for the M’s, and he followed that up with a .340/.392/.574 slash line over 51 postseason PA. Adding this kind of pop to the lineup was perhaps the biggest reason why the Mariners won the AL West, and then outlasted the Tigers in the ALDS before falling just short of the first World Series berth in franchise history by losing the ALCS to the Blue Jays in seven games.
This kind of success made the Mariners more or less want to get the band back together for 2026, which has been no small feat since Naylor. Jorge PolancoAnd Eugene Suarez (among other things) were all ready for free agency. Re-signing Naylor is the first major domino to fall, and it remains to be seen whether Polanco or Suarez can also be retained in the wake of the team’s significant involvement with Naylor. The M’s entered the offseason with about $34 million to spend, according to Dipoto’s statements after the playoffs were over, with more money potentially available at the deadline if more reinforcements were needed in the season.
For now, at least, the Mariners and their fans can enjoy the idea of Naylor playing at T-Mobile Park for the next five seasons. Naylor turns 29 in June, so his contract extends through his age-33 season. There has been some hesitation around the league in recent years about giving big contracts to players who only play first base (especially as those players approach their 30s), but Naylor’s production outside of just his short stint with the Mariners makes him a solid choice for a five-year investment.
Naylor’s 128 wRC+ in 2025 was a career high, narrowly surpassing the 127 wRC+ he posted with the Guardians in 2023. Since becoming a regular with Cleveland in 2022, Naylor has hit .275/.336/.464 with 88 home runs, which translates to a 123 wRC+ and 9.9 fWAR over the past four seasons. His walk and hard-hit ball rates are okay but uninspiring, and his walk rate from 2022-2025 was below average, so Naylor doesn’t exactly fit the profile of a classic slugging first baseman.
His biggest offensive weapon is his ability to make contact, as Naylor is among the tougher players in the league to strike out, although he tends to chase pitches off the plate. There’s also the funny quirk of Naylor’s 30-for-32 record in stealing bases in 2025, which is a testament to his ability as an opportunistic baserunner despite being one of the slowest players in baseball. Defensively, the public stats are mixed on his glove work. The Outs Above Average stat puts him solidly above average at +12 OAA, while his -6 Defensive Runs Saved paints a less flattering picture of his work at first base.
Naylor agrees Cal Raleigh And Julio Rodriguez as Seattle’s players are locked up for at least the 2029 season, and Rodriguez’s deal could even be extended through 2039, depending on a complicated series of options after the 2029 campaign. These three All-Star position players, veteran righty Luis Castilloand a core of home-grown starters (George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Molenaar) have become the building blocks of an AL West title team that looks to remain competitive for at least the rest of the decade.
While many pundits – including three of us at MLBTR – predicted Naylor would re-sign the Mariners, the fact that he has so suddenly found a new deal is creating an interesting ripple effect on the rest of the free agent class. Teams in need of lineup help have one less big bat to consider, and the first base market in particular has now lost a name that many teams would have considered perhaps a preferred alternative to Pete Alonso, Munetaka Murakamior Kazuma Okamoto. Murakami or Okamoto could be used at third base Cody Bellinger can be seen equally as a first baseman or outfielder, depending on the suitor’s needs.
Inset photo courtesy of Stephen Brashear – Imagn Images
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