Tonight’s Battle of Ontario has a bit of an edge and more than the usual rivalry stuff. Both the Toronto maple leaves and the Ottawa Senators are looking up at the playoff line, not down, and neither side has exactly emerged from the Olympic break.
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The Maple Leafs have dropped both games since the schedule resumed, getting off to a slow start and then trying to catch up. The Senators didn’t fare much better, picking up just one point in a close loss to the Detroit Red Wings, but they actually started to build something before the break.
So here comes a Saturday night that’s supposed to be fun and suddenly feels a little heavier. The Senators begin a five-game road trip. The Maple Leafs are trying to prevent this slide from turning into something that consumes their entire season. As we’ve seen time and time again, past results don’t mean much when these teams meet. Someone is pushing their season forward tonight and someone is getting into deeper trouble.
Point one: The Maple Leafs’ slow start is becoming a real problem
If you watched the last two games, you didn’t need the head coach to tell you what went wrong. Yet he told you anyway. Craig Berube said the Florida Panthers came out with more bounce, more energy and more everything, and he wasn’t wrong. Before anyone was even in their seats, Toronto was already in the hunt for the game. It also happened against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Same pattern, same hole to dig out.
Yes, the Maple Leafs went back late in both games. They usually find their legs, apply pressure and climb back in. But we are getting late in the season and “eventually” it is no longer enough. Auston Matthews said the group needs more desperation, and that’s exactly it. They know where they stand in the standings. They know that the margin of error has effectively evaporated. Yet the urgency only emerges when they are already behind.
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That’s what worries me. Once something becomes a habit, it is difficult to break it. This slow start isn’t a one-off bad week; they are getting closer to becoming part of the team’s identity. If they’re serious about turning things around, the first ten minutes tonight could be more important than anything else.
Point two: Matthews reaches another milestone, but he’s not in a celebratory mood
Speaking of Matthews, he hit another impressive marker this week. He put up assist number 350, moving him past Tim Horton on the all-time list. That is no small achievement. Normally we’d make more noise about it, but everything around the team feels so tight right now, and Matthews’ own reaction told the story. He did not dwell on the achievement. He immediately went on to talk about the team’s level of desperation.
That’s leadership, plain and simple. Matthews isn’t concerned with padding numbers or looking for applause. He’s trying to drag this group back into the fight, and he knows they’re running out of runway. If the Maple Leafs find their footing again, you can bet he and John Tavares will be the ones to pull them there. But if things continue to slip, this stretch will stand out.
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It’s a difficult place. I keep reading other analysts and writers dissing his production, and from a goal-scoring perspective he’s not putting up huge numbers. Still, from what I see, he’s doing his part. But the team is one of those moments where the entire team has to step up. It’s not.
Point three: The trip to Florida pushed Toronto toward sales
It’s amazing how quickly optimism can disappear. A week ago, you could still convince yourself with optimism to see the Maple Leafs patch a few holes and make a run. That two-game swing through Florida completely changed the temperature. After the losses to the Lightning and the Panthers, the conversation around the team shifted to “Who’s being moved?”
According to some reporters, that’s the Maple Leafs planning to move all pending restricted and unrestricted free agents before the deadline. That may seem a bit drastic, but it explains why a number of household names suddenly appeared in the rumor mill. Joseph Woll, Bobby McMann, Scott Laughton and Nicholas Robertson were specifically mentioned. Each of these players has value, but they are also the kind of pieces that a retooling club moves for picks or prospects.
Woll is the surprise: young, talented, but inconsistent and riled up. McMann is the perfect depth piece for a contender. Laughton is stable and reliable. Robertson has been waiting to make full weight, but maybe it will happen somewhere else. Don’t forget Troy Stecher, who could generate interest simply because right-shot defensemen always do. Even Brandon Carlo’s name has been floating around, though he has no plans to get him out the door.
If even half of these come true, it won’t be a small adjustment. It will be the beginning of an important reset. The team will focus on stockpiling and giving the organization breathing space. It’s not the direction fans have come to expect from this group of players, but after that trip to Florida, it’s hard to argue the writing isn’t on the wall.
What’s next for the Maple Leafs?
The solution is the same as it has been for weeks: show up for sixty minutes, not thirty. The Maple Leafs can’t keep signaling teams’ early goals and expect to bounce back. Pretty much anyone who has watched this group can see it. They work hard, but only when it seems too late.
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Tonight is a chance to reset the temperature. Not fixing everything, not magically stabilizing the season, but at least putting together a game they can build on. Ottawa likes to start fast, predict aggressively and push Toronto around early. It’s up to the Maple Leafs to meet that pressure instead of reacting to it.
If they really want to get back into the playoffs – at least emotionally – these are the nights they need to plant a flag. There’s no better time to start than in a rivalry game on home ice.
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