Life without Adam Fox is going to get ugly quickly

The Rangers are about to experience life without Adam Fox, and it won’t be pretty. Even with a healthy Fox, the Rangers were very inconsistent on offense and the power play. Now a team struggling to score will be without their best skater and their only puck mover on the blue line. Fox’s 3-23-26 in 27 games is tied for the team lead in points and assists, and the Rangers simply don’t have anyone else on the roster who can step in to fill that role as the primary puck mover and QB on the top power play unit.

Life without Adam Fox is more than losing one player

Life without Adam Fox is different this year than in years past. It’s easy to point to Fox’s stats, his role with the Rangers and overall status as a top-three defenseman in the NHL and say the Rangers are going to miss him. That’s clear. But how much life without Adam Fox will be much worse than many realize.

According to Peter Baughthe Rangers had a 42% chance of making the playoffs this year without Fox. That number drops to 37% if Fox misses 10 games, which is the minimum for LTIR. If he misses 20 games, this drops to 32%. Essentially, for every ten games Fox misses, the Rangers see their playoff chances decrease by 5%. There could be more if life without Adam Fox is underestimated.

The Rangers face an absolute challenge this week – Dallas, at Ottawa, Colorado, Vegas – before the schedule loosens up a bit for the next six games – at Chicago, Montreal, Anaheim, Vancouver, at St. Louis, Philadelphia. Even at Fox, the hope was to go .500 on this stretch. Life without Adam Fox changes those expectations significantly and people are more likely to be happy with three wins, maybe four if they’re lucky.

Fox is the Rangers’ main skater. This is not an opinion. This is a fact.

No other defenseman can move the puck

The biggest problem for the Rangers as they try to live their lives without Adam Fox is that they don’t have anyone to replace his skills. In recent years, the Rangers have had K’Andre Miller and Zac Jones who, while not at Fox’s level, were still able to attack in Fox’s absence.

Who on the Rangers can move the puck efficiently? The only answer is Scott Morrow, who has looked pretty rough since his recall. Mike Sullivan’s deployment choices after Fox’s injury showed he didn’t believe another defenseman could fill that role, with five forwards on the power play and six forwards when the goalie was withdrawn. Granted, Morrow hasn’t dressed that game, but nothing Morrow has done yet shows he can handle that role.

To give some reason for optimism as the Rangers navigate life without Adam Fox: Morrow’s CF% and HDCF% numbers increase dramatically when he’s not on the ice with Matthew Robertson, but his xGF% numbers are tanking without Robertson. It’s a small sample size, but it could mean Morrow can be much more efficient with a true NHL defenseman as his partner.

There are really only two logical moves at this point: 1) Pair Morrow with Vlad Gavrikov and hope Morrow can emulate Fox’s game while Gavrikov takes on more responsibility defensively, and 2) move Braden Schneider to the top pairing and put Urho Veelanainen with Morrow and hope a true NHL defenseman helps Morrow.

In consultation with Robthe best bang for your buck in living a life without Adam Fox is option 1, which puts Schneider in the primary role. The Rangers are at a crossroads with Schneiderand they need to figure out whether Schneider’s future with the Rangers is as a top-four defenseman or as a trade chip (cough, Dallas, cough). This also allows Morrow to grow in easier minutes.

Life without Adam Fox starts tomorrow when Dallas comes to MSG. This could get ugly quickly, but there’s at least one reason to be optimistic.