These three teams were the last candidates for Bregman last season. Detroit reportedly made a six-year, $171.5 million offer — albeit with deferred money that would have reduced the net present value — with an opt-out after the second season. The Cubs offered a four-year contract that various reports estimated was $115 million or $120 million, including opt-out opportunities after the second and third seasons.
Bregman opted for the shortest deal to get back on the market, accepting a three-year guarantee from Boston with outs after the first two years. He made $40 million (half of which was deferred) and activated the opt-out after one season with the Sox. His market will not be affected by the qualifying bid this time. He will turn 32 just after Opening Day and could target a new six-year contract.
Continued interest from Detroit is expected. They are still managed by AJ Hinch, his old skipper with the Astros. Zach McKinstry was a surprise All-Star this year, but his numbers dipped in the second half. The Tigers would be better off with him in a utility role, perhaps taking over most of Javier Báez’s shortstop reps until top prospect Kevin McGonigle arrives. They could use Colt Keith as a left-handed complement to Spencer Torkelson and Gleyber Torres in the right side of the infield, while mixing him in as a designated hitter if Kerry Carpenter plays in right field.
The matchup is a little tougher for the Cubs, especially if Bregman is signed to a long-term contract. That would rule out former first-round pick Matt Shaw, who is coming off a fairly impressive rookie season. Shaw’s overall .226/.295/.394 line is subpar, but he settled in after struggling in his first big league pitching attempts. Shaw got off to a terrible start, but was an average hitter in the league after being recalled from Triple-A in mid-May. That includes a .258/.317/.522 in the second half, although he slumped a bit in the final month after a huge August.
Shaw impressed defensively, especially later in the season. The Cubs could justify giving him the third base job and hope for continued improvements at the plate. However, it was not such an overwhelming debut that they are completely out of the running for Bregman. Shaw ranked in the bottom 10 percent of qualified hitters in average exit velocity and hard contact rate. He doesn’t have tremendous bat speed, so there’s no guarantee he’ll be the 20-25 homer threat that Bregman has been during his career.
It still seems likely that the Cubs will prioritize adding a mid-rotation or better starter. They are said to have made a run at Dylan Cease and are involved in the bidding for NPB pitcher Tatsuya Imai. A pursuit of Framber Valdez or Ranger Suárez would make sense. Grid source calculates their luxury tax number around $197 million, putting them $35 million below last season’s line. They are almost $50 million below the basic tax threshold.
Signing Bregman and a No. 2 starter would likely put them in tax territory, and it’s not clear if ownership would approve this type of spending. However, they could address the rotation on the trade market, and Shaw would be a quality piece to dangle in the conversations if they upgrade at third base. They could also use him off the bench in a utility role with the long-term plan to move him to second base once Nico Hoerner hits free agency next season.
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