When Dana White announced this fight in late November, sportsbooks wasted no time in opening the boards. Kayla Harrison registered as a -155 favorite at some sportsbooks, while Amanda Nunes was at +130. It was a respectable gap, Harrison thought, but not overwhelming. The UFC bantamweight champion, fresh off her victory over Julianna Peña in June, was treated like a small advantage. Nunes, returning from two and a half years away, was presented as a living underdog.
That didn’t remain static for long. Within days, most books had Harrison closer to the -162 area, pushing Nunes toward +136 to +142. The story seemed set: youth and momentum on one side, experience and ring rust on the other. Harrison was the move for favorites. The line was further tightened in mid-December. Some books showed Harrison at -204 to -213, a significant shift. The gap widened, but that is possible see bonuses here.
Nunes was now a tougher proposition, harder to justify at +145 or +160. For anyone considered the underdog, the value window quickly closed. By early December, several books had entered the -155 range.
Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes early odds
In late December, the lines at several stores began moving in unexpected directions. Books had Harrison ranging from -225 to -185 depending on bet type, with Nunes somewhere between +189 and +160. Others showed -177 and +140. The variation suggests the market was revaluing. The betting exchange gave an even tighter picture in decimal odds: Harrison at 1.44 (about -305 in American), Nunes at 2.38, implying something closer to a 60-40 proposition if you take away the power.
The opening consensus had Harrison with about a 60% probability. In December, depending on where you looked, that could fluctuate to 65-67%, then drop back to 58-60% for certain books. The reverse line movement, the sharp points blurring the favorite and seeing the value in Nunes suggests this isn’t a great matchup. The public loves Harrison, the oddsmakers agree, but not with overwhelming conviction.
That’s the suspense: Can Harrison drag this to the floor without eating a clean countertop? Can Nunes keep her feet long enough to land the shot that will end it? The odds reflect real uncertainty about which style will win
UFC324 takes place on Saturday, January 24, 2026 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The card airs on Paramount+ at 9:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM PT as the first numbered UFC event under the promotion’s new media rights deal. Harrison and Nunes will face off in the co-main event, with Justin Gaethje taking on Paddy Pimblett for the interim lightweight title in the headliner.
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