Joby Aviation has risen by 270% in the past year … and I am not Still buy.
Look, I have been trading since ’99. I have one lot From hype. And this? Smells for it.
Joby has just reached a market capitalization of $ 15 billion, even though they have zero gain last quarter. That is not a typo.
They burn cash, bleeding losses and Wall Street? Call it still a “hold” with a target price 50% below The current trading prize.
I am not a financial adviser and that is one Good thing. I am not here to sell you a pension plan or the next meme shares. I break the numbers so you can make smarter” self -assured decisions.
Let’s go in.
The overview of Joby Aviation
Well, it is a company that builds electric aircraft that rises up and down upright. Just like helicopters, that do. But These planes Differences from helicopters. They are designed to be much quieter. They are more efficient. And they are better for the environment. See them as electric air taxis.
The company started back in 2009. The founder
This company started aimed at new aircraft technology. Over the years, Joby grew from a small startup to a public company. They now have great support from major investors and car companies.
What makes Joby unique from traditional aircraft companies is easy. They focus on electric current and straight-up starts. Their aircraft uses six electric motors and rotors to fly. I mean, this ensures that it works more like one large drone Then a normal plane.
Joby went public in August 2021. They merged with a special acquisition company, or Spac, which gave them access to public markets. It also gave them the money they needed to continue to develop their technology and to switch to actual business activities.
Stock price promotion
Since Joby Stock has experienced remarkable fluctuations about his public trade history. The share has recently risen to new highlights of around $ 19, which is around 270% growth for 1 year. That is a lot of improvement.
The biggest reason for the recent leap took place this month, when Joby the acquisition Of the passenger activities of Blade Air Mobility for a maximum of $ 125 million. This news made the shares more than 20%in one day, because investors saw the deal as a way to accelerate the path of the company to real business activities.
The deal gives Joby various big benefits immediately. It provides access to 12 city terminalsIncluding John Kennedy Airport, Newark Airport and several locations in Manhattan, plus a customer base of more than 50,000 passengers who flew with Blade in 2024. This infrastructure and the customer network can help Joby skip market development for years. That of course happens as soon as their electric aircraft is certified.
The rally also shows a wider excitement of investors about the progress, and the company recently announced his expansion Production at locations in Marina, California and Dayton, Ohio. Mainly to double the production capacity. And with these developments, Joby comes closer to FAA certification and commercial launch.
That said, the current stock price shows high expectations for the future of Joby. I mean, the company now has a market value of more than $ 15 billion Despite earning zero income in the 1st quarter. I think that investors betting on Joby’s commercial launch and fast market acceptance. So any delays or setbacks can cause enormous price correction.
Second quarter of financial data
Now let’s look at the actual financial companies. On Wednesday Joby reported his win in the second quarter before 2025.
Compared to the same quarter last year, sales for the quarter decreased from $ 28 million to $ 15 million. Operational loss Increased 16%while The net loss rose by 163% Compared to the same period last year.
That said, the deterioration is mainly driven by the drastic Increase in operating costsThat is mainly about research and development. Now there is not much to discuss about the financial data, because Joby really makes his feet wet, so these negative figures are not really a surprise.
I mean, Joby is currently like a startup restaurant during the first month of the operation. You see all the prior costs of equipment, staff training and prescription development, but the dinner is not yet started.
So, what is the chance that the company will grow further?
Potential growth engine
Well, apart from the acquisition of the Blade Air Mobility, is the biggest thing that could speed up Joby’s growth, the development of the infrastructure of urban air mobility. The market It is estimated that $ 28.5 billion will reach in 2030, because cities and airports will start building Vertiports and charging stations for electric aircraft. If the development went in the right direction, this would be a huge growth for many operators such as Joby.
Fortunately, several large airports and cities have announced plans to build a Vertiport infrastructure. Los Angeles has made announcements for the 2026 Olympic Games.
So have New York and Miami. And all partnerships have watched with electric aviation companies to develop landing sites and support services.
You see, passengers need handy places to go on and off, and planes need places to land, charge and get maintenance. If this infrastructure development accelerates, this can remove one of the most important barriers to the widespread acceptance of air taxi services.
Moreover, for sustainable transport, government support can also stimulate investments in infrastructure. Although there were no words about it, I think that stimuli for electric aviation would help enormously. These would be similar to incentives for electric cars. If that happens, the development of this new transport network would be so much faster.
Risks
Joby works in a market that becomes more competitive every day, and this is something that we often tackle in my Discord server. Various other companies build comparable electric vertical start aircraft and each has its own approach.
I think Archer Aviation Is Joby’s largest and direct competitor. They have a similar business model and aircraft design and also work Via FAA certification. Archer Aviation also works together with large companies such as United Airlines.
Other competitors are Lilium Air Mobility from Germany, which also develops a different type of electric aircraft. Another is Ehang from China, which focuses on drones of passengers flying themselves.
What is even more important, massive space companies such as Boeing and Airbus also put money in electric aviation technologies. So with this we can expect the competition to become more intense.
The competition goes further than just building planes. AIR Taxi companies such as Joby also compete for partnerships with airlines and services for sharing journeys, for deals with developers, and even for the best engineering and production capacity.
I mean, it’s something we can expect from relatively new markets like this.
What the consumer ends up means this competition better prices, but for investors this also means that Joby’s success is not guaranteed. Even if the total market for electric aviation grows as expected, Joby can have a hard time competing with giants such as Boeing and Airbus.
This makes a partnership with these airlines the best way ahead.
Judgement
Meanwhile, Wall Street Joby rated as a “Delay’In the past 3 months. As a conservative investor itself, this assessment is understandable.
The highest price target for Joby is only around $ 13 per share, which is remarkably lower than the current price levels of around $ 19 per share. This means that Wall Street Joby finds too expensive. The average price target is $ 8.75, which means that the downward potential is more than 50% if the shares cause a price correction.
My judgment
As a conservative investor itself, I don’t feel comfortable at the moment starting a position, especially with a sudden peak in the share price and progressive cash burning. I would wait for Joby to limit the gap between loss and profitability before you jump in, because it is now a bit too wide for me. But again, that’s just my take as a conservative investor, and Joby is a risky, high-reward type of investments.
So that is my opinion about Joby Aviation. What do you think of the company? Do you buy their potential?
#Joby #Aviations #Spanning #Braak #Bubble