Thursday Night Football in Week 11 of the NFL season is a showdown in the AFC East between the New York Jets and the New England Patriots. It was a tale of two very different 2025 campaigns for these two teams. New York comes in with a 2-7 record, while New England sits atop the division at 8-2.
Let’s take a look at my Jets vs. Patriots predictions.
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Odds
Moneyline: Jets +575 / Patriots -850
Spread: Jets +12.5 (-105) / Patriots -12.5 (-110)
Total: Over 43.5 (-108) / Under 43.5 (-112)
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Best Bet No. 1: Under 43.5 (-112)
Perhaps because they last short weeks and offer less preparation time, Thursday Night Football games are usually ugly, low-scoring slogs (unless, of course, the Cincinnati Bengals are involved). These two teams are definitely not the Bengals. The Jets don’t look much like an offense; the patriots have a great defense. As such, the recipe is there for the underworld to make money.
Cold and windy conditions in Foxborough won’t help the offensive attacks either. Even under favorable conditions, New York doesn’t have the potential to post a large number of posts. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s outfit ranks no better than No. 26 in the NFL in EPA per pass, completion percentage and passing touchdowns. It is the last in passing transgression. Why should we expect anything to change against New England? The Patriots rank in the top five defensively in all of the above categories. As for the Jets defense, it’s a bit depleted after the trade deadline, but still playing hard. New York sacked Cleveland QB Dillon Gabriel six times during last week’s 27-20 win.
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Best Player Prop Bet: Drake Maye Under 241.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Betting against Maye isn’t a real blow to him individually. After all, he is currently favored to win NFL MVP. The simple fact is that he may not throw enough passes to exceed this number. New England is a heavy -12.5 favorite, so it is expected to play with a healthy lead from start to finish on Thursday. That means the home team will likely keep the ball on the ground and let the clock run.
That’s what the Pats should do against the Jets, no matter the score. New York is very good against the pass (No. 8 in the league wide), allowing just 190.8 yards per game on 6.8 yards per attempt. However, it is No. 25 against the run (138.2 yards per play allowed on 4.6 yards per carry).
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