“Life is like a box of chocolates,” Forrest Gump memorably told us. “You never know what you’re going to get.”
Still, Valentine’s Day is a day that simply calls for a box of sweets: 92% of Americans hope to get chocolate for the holidays, and if they don’t think they’ll get it themselves, about half plan to treat themselves, according to the National Confectioners Association (NCA), even as chocolate prices remain high thanks to persistent inflation across the candy chain.
An unprecedented price spike in 2025 caused chocolate prices for U.S. brands to rise 12%, according to data from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute. That’s because West Africa, where about 70% of the world’s cocoa is produced, continues to struggle with weather problems, disease and aging trees.
Since then, producer prices have fallen, but it will take a while for these declines to work their way through the supply chain and into the inventory that consumers buy. David Branch, sector manager of the Wells Fargo institute, expects that it will be mid-2026 when the lower prices will hit the shelves.
“Despite the higher prices, consumers are still enjoying Valentine’s Day,” Branch told USA TODAY in an email, “and chocolate remains a favorite, even if saving means skipping the heart shape.”
‘The most iconic’ type of chocolate for Valentine’s Day
Indeed, the heart-shaped box is “the most iconic” of all Valentine’s Day options, says the NCA, and 55% of Americans consider receiving a box of chocolates for the holiday as the warmest gesture, trumping the 7% who think honor is reserved for personalized conversation hearts.
Meanwhile, despite Forrest Gump’s insight into the unknowns inside every box of chocolates, about 43% of Americans consult the guide that comes with most boxes before choosing a treat. About a quarter of us admit to nibbling the corners of chocolates, and 10% say they poke the bottom.
Valentine’s Day is one of the candy industry’s “big four” seasons, which also includes Easter, Halloween and the winter holidays, NCA notes. Together, these holidays account for 62% of what was a $54 billion confectionery industry in 2024, with Valentine’s Day accounting for 12.4% of that total.
Regardless of the cost, consumers are still turning to candy and chocolate to help them celebrate important dates like Valentine’s Day, an NCA spokesperson told USA TODAY in an email.
“Importantly, most consumers view chocolate and candy as an affordable treat, and they appreciate the special role treats play in sweetening memories and bringing friends and family closer together. On Valentine’s Day, sharing chocolate and candy is really about love, connection and joy,” the spokesperson said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: It wouldn’t be Valentine’s Day without chocolate, no matter the cost
Reporting by Andrea Riquier, USA TODAY / USA TODAY
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
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