Tl; DR:
- The RSI divergence of Bitcoin shows a weakening downward momentum and indicates a possible shift to potential recovery.
- Short -term holders have ordered 30.9k BTC to exchange, so that realized losses with a value of around $ 3.3 billion were used.
- Persistent negative exchange network flows indicate accumulation, making the offer available for immediate sales pressure.
Bullish divergence on the graph
Bitcoin shows early signs of a possible reversal after the last decline. The price has fallen from more than $ 114,000 to around $ 111,500, making lower lows. At the same time, the relative strength index (RSI) has been moved higher and a bullish divergence is on the 2-hour graph.
Analyst Merlin the Trader Commented:
$ BTC I just flashed a bullish divergence.
Price made lower lows. RSI made higher lows.
After the dump … the momentum shifts.
This is where reversals are born. pic.twitter.com/kp6rgwz4pq
– Merlin the Trader (@Merlijntrader) September 23, 2025
Higher closures after the decrease suggest the momentum starts to get rid of sellers.
Bitcoin currently acts nearly $ 112,700 with a daily volume of almost $ 49 billion. It has slipped somewhat over the past 24 hours and has fallen by 4% last week. The immediate support range is between $ 111,500 and $ 113,000.
Merlin pointed Up to two potential results.
“After the dump comes the chance. $ BTC just gave us the setup legends,” he said.
In one scenario, Bitcoin holds up the support and rebound to $ 124,000. In the other, the level breaks, which means that the price is lowered in the range of $ 102,000 – $ 104,000 before a recovery is set at $ 120,000.
Short -term holders who sell in the event of a loss
Flows on the chain show a heavy sales pressure of holders in the short term. Analyst Ted noted:
$ 3,390,000,000 $ BTC is moved to exchanges.
Gewism ā ā fear āļø ā Selloff ā Accumulation ā Rally. https://t.co/jgwtraevft pic.twitter.com/dqgzku9o6c
– Ted (@tedpillows) September 23, 2025
Data indicates that approximately 30.9 K BTC has been moved to exchanges within 24 hours with a loss of approximately $ 3.39 billion.
This activity reflects capitulation of recent buyers. In earlier cycles, comparable loss-taking events are tailored to local soils, because long-term holders absorb the supply of weaker hands.
Exchange Netflows Show Outflows
Exchange network flow data add further context. Large outlets have been dominated in recent weeks, with a few days of more than 20,000 BTC that leaves scholarships. During the last decline to $ 112,000, the outflows arrived nearly 30,000 BTC.
Persistent recordings mean that investors put coins in storage instead of preparing for sale. Historically, persistent outflows in the midst of price -weakness are important signs of accumulative phases, reducing the supply on fairs and setting up recovery conditions.
Bitcoin remains under pressure due to this phase with potential proof of change. Bullish divergence, short -term capitulation and consistent outlets of exchanges can promote the circumstances where the price can bounce back, provided that support is delivered.
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