Is Cardano in trouble? Why whales are leaving Binance

The drop in open interest at ADA resembles Solana’s previous pattern, where a fragmented market often precedes weaker altcoin momentum.

For example, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said Cardano’s derivatives market is experiencing a major shift that could impact price momentum.

Cardano follows Solana’s path

Open interest in ADA has fallen sharply from $1.6 billion to $334 million as major players have aggressively closed their positions. However, Wedson explained that the most significant change lies in the way OI is distributed across exchanges. As of 2023, Binance controlled more than 80% of ADA’s open holdings, while 17 other exchanges together held less than 20%.

By 2026, that balance has changed dramatically, as Binance now holds just 22% and Gate.io has emerged as the new leader with 31% of the market. Wedson noted that this change is significant because a similar pattern played out at Solana.

During SOL’s rally from $20 to $200 in 2023-2024, Binance’s open interest dominance increased, supporting the price increase.

Later, as Binance’s stock fell, Solana’s momentum weakened. The same trend appears to be unfolding with Cardano, and with open interest fragmented, the altcoin’s upside potential may be limited as the overall crypto market remains vulnerable.

“Binance is typically the exchange that drives strong altcoin rallies, but only when leverage is concentrated and competition is limited.”

The long-term trend remains intact

Despite the near-term market uncertainty gripping the ADA market, says pseudonymous analyst ‘Crypto Patel’ believes that the overall long-term structure remains bullish as long as the price does not fall below $0.13 at a weekly close.

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On the upside, he says ADA needs to reclaim $0.44 to confirm a new uptrend. If that happens, the crypto asset could enter a new bull cycle, with long-term targets ranging from $1.20 to as high as over $10, similar to previous cycles.