Is 2025 a blip? Samir Arora says Nifty’s 11.8% USD CAGR since 1998 is higher than gold, S&P 500

Veteran fund manager Samir Arora has revived the long-running India versus global investing debate with a data-rich comparison that puts Indian equities well ahead of gold and even US markets over the past three decades.The founder and fund manager of Helios Capital Management, in a post on Importantly, these returns are calculated after taking into account the long-term depreciation of the Indian rupee.

“Wow. Skip this. NIFTY 50 (total return including dividends) from December 31, 1998 to today is 1,922.38% or 11.78% CAGR over almost 27 years (in US$ terms),” the tweet said.His comments come in the wake of Nifty’s underperformance against major global benchmarks this year. India’s heartbeat index is among the worst performing compared to major global indices, with returns of around 10% this year. Among Asian benchmarks, Nikkei 2025 returned 28%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng returned 32% and China’s Shanghai Composite returned 21%.

Wall Street’s major indices, Dow 30, S&P 100 and Nasdaq Composite, have delivered returns of 14%, 20% and 22% respectively. Among European indices, the British FTSE 100 is up 20%, while the German DAX is up 22%.

The best asset class in 2025 was gold bullion, with gold returning around 80% and silver becoming a multibagger.

Also read: With mutual fund IPO bets under scanner, Samir Arora says skipping issues for optics is not value investing. However, Arora said even gold, often considered a favorite asset among Indian households, has lagged equities over the same period. Gold has generated returns of 1,472%, or 10.74% per year in dollar terms, underscoring stocks’ superior ability to create wealth over the long term.

“Revenues from gold (which Indians also own in sufficient quantities) are 1472.66% or 10.74% per annum over the same period (in US dollars),” the tweet said.

The comparison seems even more striking when you look at the S&P 500, which is widely considered the global benchmark for stock investing. The US index returned 821% or just 8.57% CAGR during the same period, which is significantly lower than Indian equity benchmarks on a dollar-adjusted basis.

Also read: Skin in the game matters: Samir Arora advises investors to question fund managers on personal exposure

“The return of the S&P 500 is ONLY 821.05% over this period or just 8.57% per annum. When comparing it to the S&P 500, the correct comparison should be with the NSE 500 Index and not the NIFTY Index. The NSE 500 Index in USD terms has delivered returns of 2590.1% or 12.96% per annum over the last 27 years. All these returns are after deducting the INR depreciation over this long period,” said the Helios fund manager.

Arora also cautioned against simplistic index comparisons. He argued that when comparing Indian markets with the S&P 500, the NSE 500 is the most appropriate benchmark, which better represents the broader market. On that basis, the NSE 500 TRI has delivered an exceptional return of 2,590%, which translates into an annualized return of 12.96% in US dollars over the past 27 years.

The data reinforces an important conclusion for long-term investors: Indian equities, when measured correctly and adjusted for currency devaluation, have not only beaten gold but have also outperformed US equities by a wide margin, strengthening the case for sustainable domestic equity allocation.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)