Intuitive machines Stock goes to the moon. Time to jump on board?

Leading inventory in lunar exploration and space infrastructure Intuitive machines (LUNR) shot to the moon on Friday, with shares rising 37.7% to close at $14.94 per share. The rally was sparked by KeyBanc initiating coverage with an ‘Overweight’ recommendation and a $20 price target, implying an upside of about 34% from Friday’s close (and about 84% from previous levels before the run-up).

This bullish call is in line with broader Wall Street sentiment, where consensus ratings are trending toward a buy and the average analyst price target is hovering around $16 per share, indicating solid potential for further gains. With the renewed focus on moon missions, is now the time for investors to jump in?

Another moonshot

KeyBanc’s bullish stance stems from Intuitive Machines’ strong positioning in scalable moon services. Analyst Michael Leshock highlighted the company’s near-term opportunities, including a pro-forma backlog of nearly $1 billion following the acquisition of Lanteris space systems. This deal expands LUNR from one-off missions to a broader space infrastructure, expanding its manufacturing and operations capabilities.

The analyst also points to Intuitive Machines’ leadership in the Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) program under NASA’s Artemis campaign, with the company one of three finalists developing vehicles for astronaut mobility on the moon. The company has high confidence in upcoming milestones, such as the IM-3 mission, and views the stock’s valuation as undervalued relative to the long-term growth prospects in lunar infrastructure.

In a new tailwind, President Trump on Thursday signed an executive order titled “Ensuring American Space Superiority,” reaffirming the U.S. commitment to landing astronauts on the moon by 2028 through the Artemis program. The goal is to establish the first elements of a permanent outpost on the moon by 2030, including nuclear power sources on the surface.

This policy accelerates lunar development, counters competition from China and prioritizes commercial partnerships. Intuitive Machines will benefit significantly as a proven NASA contractor with expertise in lunar landers and services. Designed for Artemis astronauts to explore further and conduct more science, the Moon RACER LTV positions LUNR as a key enabler in realizing this outpost vision. Success in LTV contracts could unlock billions of dollars in value, supporting sustainable revenues from remote operations between missions.

Intuitive Machine’s proven track record – having already delivered the first commercial moon landing in 2024 (albeit with a rollover accident) – strengthens investor confidence in its ability to execute these ambitious programs.

Space is a risky place

Execution by intuitive machines remains crucial. Moon missions are technically challenging, and delays or setbacks can put pressure on supplies. The Space Supply (IM-2) second lunar landing with the Athena lander in March also resulted in the lander falling on its side into a crater near the moon’s south pole, preventing it from recharging or fully deploying its payload, making it a failure. LUNR shares then plummeted.

Volatility is high in this speculative sector, with government timelines and financing uncertainties. Yet Intuitive Machines remains the only private sector company to reach the moon.

In short

Intuitive Machines provides compelling exposure to the expanding lunar economy, backed by strong ties to NASA, a growing backlog, and policy momentum driving the industry forward. KeyBanc’s start of coverage and President Trump’s executive order highlight the upside potential of short-term contracts and long-term infrastructure roles, making LUNR stock a buy.

Overall, LUNR appears well positioned for growth in a supportive environment, making it an attractive opportunity for risk-tolerant investors looking to the next phase of the space sector.